MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt13 October 2026, Tuesday · 10:00 TRT (UTC+3)
Tourism lifts Türkiye to a $4bn current-account surplus in August
CBRT data released on 13 October show a current-account surplus of $4.053 billion in August. The surplus was carried by net travel income of $7.285 billion; the annualised current-account deficit stood at $42.1 billion.
CBRT data cited by Dünya show the current account excluding gold and energy ran an $8.205 billion surplus in August. The balance-of-payments trade deficit was $3.746 billion. Services brought net inflows of $9.711 billion, of which $7.285 billion came from travel and $3.265 billion from transport. The annualised primary-income deficit is $25.6 billion; August's surplus came from seasonal tourism income.
The financial account recorded $141 million of direct-investment inflows and $1.034 billion of portfolio outflows in August. Official reserves rose by $7.138 billion on the month. On an annualised basis, net foreign-currency reserves fell by $30.1 billion while loans contributed $47.1 billion. Figures cited by Haber71 match: an annual trade deficit of $78.4 billion and an annual services surplus of $63.9 billion.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
August's surplus is the seasonal contribution of summer tourism, not a structural improvement. With an annualised deficit of $42.1 billion the financing need persists, and the portfolio channel saw outflows again in August. As tourism income fades from October while the energy bill stays high through prices, the monthly balance could swing back into deficit.
Likely effects
- External financingNegative1–6 months
Portfolio outflows reached $1.034 billion in August; financing of the deficit relies on the debt and loan channel, with $47.1 billion of annual loan inflows.
- ReservesUncertainWeeks
A $7.138 billion monthly rise in reserves shows tourism dollars reaching the CBRT, but annual net FX reserves have shrunk by $30.1 billion.
- Turkish liraUncertainWeeks
The seasonal surplus supports the currency in September–October; once the tourist season ends, energy-driven FX demand becomes decisive again.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Back to deficit towards winter60%
Travel income falls while the energy bill stays high, and the monthly balance turns to deficit in October–November.
Watch: TÜİK September–October trade data and the CBRT's September balance of payments
- 2Surplus holds in September25%
An extended tourist season and weak domestic demand keep the September balance in surplus too.
Watch: September travel income and gold imports
- 3Rapid deterioration on an oil shock15%
Brent rising above $110 swells the energy bill, and the annual deficit nears $50 billion.
Watch: The $110 threshold on Brent futures
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- August current account▲ +$4.05bn
- Annual current deficit▼ $42.1bn
- Portfolio (August)▼ −$1.03bn