MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security20 October 2026, Tuesday · 14:08 TRT (UTC+3)
Türkiye's grid plan swells to 80 billion dollars, but storage lags
Deputy Energy Minister Nevzat Şatıroğlu said on 20 October that about 80 billion dollars of investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure is planned through 2035. Installed renewable capacity has reached 80 gigawatts, while storage stands at 495 megawatts.
Şatıroğlu spoke at the Turkish Electrical Industry Association's 2nd Energy Strategies Conference in Ankara. According to Anadolu Agency, total installed capacity stood at 127 gigawatts as of August, with renewables at 80,000 megawatts. The plan includes Türkiye's first high-voltage direct current lines and 5 gigawatts of offshore wind investment by 2035. Zafer Benli, director general of the state generator EÜAŞ, tied the 35% electrification target for 2035 to COP31.
The figure is larger than the framework set out a month earlier. On 16 September Minister Bayraktar told AA that 28 billion dollars was planned for transmission alone through 2035, including a direct current corridor of about 9,580 kilometres and 28 gigawatts. The same statement put generation-side investment for the 120-gigawatt wind and solar target at about 80 billion dollars. Sources do not make clear whether the new 80 billion dollar figure reflects the addition of distribution or a reshuffling of line items; it could not be verified.
The signal lies in the ratios. Against 80 gigawatts of renewables, 495 megawatts of storage is less than 0.6% of installed capacity. By Benli's comparison, the EU is targeting 200 gigawatts of storage by 2030. Şatıroğlu said current projects would lift storage from 495 megawatts to several thousand, but gave no date. The structural constraint is not generation. Without the capacity and lines to carry 80 gigawatts of solar and wind output into evening demand, new plants will face curtailment.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The binding constraint in Türkiye's energy transition is shifting from generation to the grid. Eighty gigawatts of renewables cannot be balanced with 495 megawatts of storage, and in one month the investment framework has widened from a 28 billion dollar transmission figure to an 80 billion dollar transmission and distribution figure. No funding source has been named, and dollar-denominated grid investment is expensive at today's interest rates. The most likely path is phased tendering for direct current lines and storage, with the 2035 target reached late.
Likely effects
- Power supply securityNegative1–6 months
If storage and line shortages persist, solar and wind output is curtailed at midday, gas plants cover evening demand and the need for imported gas stays high.
- External financingUncertain6 months+
The 80 billion dollar grid programme depends on foreign loans and bond issuance; Türkiye's risk premium directly sets the cost of these projects.
- Electrical equipmentPositive6 months+
Demand for direct current lines, transformers and batteries creates a large order pool for the domestic electrical industry.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Phased tenders, delayed timetable55%
The first direct current line and storage tenders begin within a few years, but the pace of investment trails the 2035 target.
Watch: TEİAŞ's first tender notice for a direct current line and storage capacity rising clearly above 495 megawatts
- 2Financing arrives quickly25%
International development banks and green bonds provide funding, and storage reaches several thousand megawatts within a few years.
Watch: A multilateral bank loan or green bond announced for grid projects
- 3The plan stays on paper20%
Budget and interest rate constraints delay investment, and curtailment of renewable output increases.
Watch: Grid investment scaled back in the 2040 National Energy Plan
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Grid investment (to 2035)▲ $80bn
- Storage capacity▼ 495 MW
- Installed renewable capacity▲ 80 GW