HighV Technology Geopolitics & AI5 November 2026, Thursday

Data-centre moratorium fears hand chip stocks their worst day since 2020

Fears that data-centre permits will be frozen in states won by Democrats in the midterms sent the Nasdaq 100 down 6.36% on 5 November. According to CNBC, the semiconductor index had its worst day since March 2020.

Location: AUSTIN

According to a ShiftDelete round-up, Democrat Gina Hinojosa, who won the Texas governorship, pledged an immediate moratorium, a temporary ban on permits, for new data-centre projects. Hinojosa takes office in January. According to Wells Fargo, Texas accounts for 27% of planned data-centre gigawatts. GLJ Research estimates that about 13 gigawatts of capacity is directly at risk.

According to a Goldman Sachs note cited by investingLive, states expected to tighten their rules host about 45% of planned US capacity. The bank expects temporary pauses in Texas, Georgia and Michigan, but thinks they will not last. The note itself could not be accessed; the 45% figure is second-hand.

The selling concentrated on suppliers. According to investingLive, the S&P 500 fell 4.35% and the Nasdaq Composite 5.52% on 5 November; Micron fell about 12% intraday. According to CNBC, Nvidia dropped 9% and all three main indices had their worst day since April 2025. Safe-haven demand pulled the 2-year Treasury yield down 11.45 basis points to 4.47%.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

For the first time the market priced the constraint on AI investment not in chip supply but in state permits, power and water. Moratoriums cannot take effect before January, so the 5 November sell-off is a shock to expectations. The most likely path is for projects to migrate to permitting states, with 2027 spending dispersed geographically rather than deferred.

Likely effects

AI supply chainNegativeWeeks
Memory, storage and chip-equipment suppliers are the first link to feel permitting uncertainty in their order schedules.
US power gridUncertain1–6 months
The roughly 13 gigawatts at risk in Texas pushes projects to states such as Louisiana and Oklahoma, raising grid load there.
Fed expectationsUncertainWeeks
The equity rout and safe-haven demand reduced the odds of a 9 December hike; the 2-year yield fell 11.45 basis points.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Brief pause, geographic shift55%
States end temporary pauses with new rules, projects shift to permitting states and spending continues in 2027.
Watch: The data-centre permitting bill in the Texas legislative session
2
A spreading moratorium wave30%
States beyond Texas impose lasting restrictions, and large companies cut their 2027 capex guidance.
Watch: Capex guidance from the large cloud companies in the January earnings season
3
Investment pulled forward15%
Companies start projects before the rules take effect, and near-term orders rise.
Watch: The number of grid connection applications in Texas before January

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Nasdaq 100▼ −6.36%
S&P 500▼ −4.35%
Capacity at risk▲ 45%

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources