MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI19 October 2026, Monday
Foreigners pull $19.4bn out of Taiwanese equities in a week
The Taipei Times reports foreign institutions sold $19.4bn of Taiwanese equities in the week of 12-16 October, taking a net $17.961bn out of the country. The NT dollar weakened intraday to 32.57 on 19 October, its weakest since April 2025.
Taiwan's central bank attributed the fall to the correction in global technology shares and foreign capital outflows in a statement on 19 October. Foreign investors were cutting positions because of stretched valuations in artificial intelligence stocks and rising funding risk in the sector, the bank said. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 15.7% between 7 and 16 October while the TAIEX lost 5.4%; the bank read that gap as relative resilience. The TAIEX shed 4.47% last week alone, and the NT dollar lost 1.37%.
Selling continued on 19 October. According to Focus Taiwan, foreign investors sold a net NT$76.74bn of shares that day, about $2.37bn. The TAIEX closed 0.61% lower at 46,822.08 after falling more than 940 points intraday; the Philadelphia index had dropped 3.83% the previous Friday. TSMC alone accounts for more than 40% of market capitalisation, and the stock closed flat. An analyst at Concord Securities said he suspected state-backed funds had been buying TSMC; that claim could not be verified.
On the currency side, Cathay United Bank said the NT dollar broke the 32.5 threshold as equity selling intensified. The bank said expectations that US rates stay elevated were lifting bond yields and weighing on Asian currencies. The Fed meets on 27-28 October. The Korean won and Chinese yuan gained against the dollar in the same week while the Japanese yen slipped 0.24%; the pressure concentrated in the market with the heaviest AI weighting.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The outflow from Taiwan shows doubts about the AI cycle being priced first in the market most concentrated in it. With one company carrying 40% of market capitalisation, a sector correction transmits straight into the currency and the capital account. The most likely path is choppy selling until the Fed's 27-28 October decision, with the central bank acting as a stabiliser in the currency.
Likely effects
- The NT dollarNegativeWeeks
A net $17.961bn outflow in one week pushed the currency to its weakest level since April 2025; the central bank hinted it could step in to steady the market.
- AI fundingNegative1–6 months
The central bank naming funding risk explicitly shows the cost of debt behind AI investment now reaching Asia's supply-chain markets.
- Regional divergenceUncertainWeeks
The won and the yuan firming in the same week while the NT dollar fell points to Taiwan's sector concentration rather than region-wide pressure.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Choppy outflows persist55%
Foreign selling runs until the Fed decision, the NT dollar stays pressured around 32.5 and the central bank caps volatility.
Watch: Daily foreign net selling data from the Taiwan exchange and the 32.5 threshold on the NT dollar
- 2A quick reversal30%
US yields settle and AI company earnings confirm demand, drawing foreign capital back.
Watch: The Fed's 28 October decision and the US 10-year yield
- 3A deeper correction15%
A credit event hits AI funding, outflows from Taiwan accelerate and the currency reaches new lows.
Watch: A fresh jump in credit spreads for AI infrastructure companies
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Weekly foreign selling▼ $19.4bn
- NT dollar intraday low▼ 32.57
- TAIEX for the week▼ −4.47%