HighVI Energy Politics & Supply Security3 November 2026, Tuesday
Ukraine hits Yaroslavl, its fourth Russian refinery in four nights
Ukrainian drones struck the Slavneft-YANOS refinery, which processes 15 million tonnes a year, again overnight on 3 November. After Novokuibyshevsk, Ufa and Kstovo, it is the fourth facility targeted since 30 October.
Meduza reported that footage from the Astra channel showed at least 7 fires at YANOS, 5 of them large. Yaroslavl Governor Evrayev said refinery infrastructure had been damaged and 2 workers wounded by shrapnel. He said 124 drones had attacked the city and all had been shot down. The Russian Defence Ministry's claim to have downed 856 drones overnight could not be independently verified.
According to United24, the first three targets account for about 33 million tonnes of annual capacity, roughly 10% of Russia's refining capacity. That figure reflects capacity targeted, not confirmed lost output. The 8.8 million tonne Novokuibyshevsk plant was hit on 30 October and the 7 million tonne Ufa Novoil plant on 31 October. On 1 November Kstovo NORSI, Russia's fourth-largest refinery, was struck. The Kyiv Independent said it could not immediately verify the damage at Kstovo, which has 15–17 million tonnes of capacity.
Adding YANOS's 15 million tonnes brings the capacity targeted over four nights to about 48 million tonnes. As of 3 November, the sources carry no statement from Ukraine's General Staff claiming the strikes. Ukrainian manufacturer Fire Point confirmed taking part in only two of the 4 attacks, on Novokuibyshevsk and Kstovo. The outcome of the Ufa attack remained unclear in United24's report as of 1 November.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Four refineries in four nights show Kyiv has taken a campaign that was expected to stay sparse until the US midterms back to full tempo. Most of the damage has not been independently verified, so lost output may prove smaller than the capacity targeted. Talay's reading is that Russia's domestic fuel market will tighten again and its diesel export commitments will come under pressure.
Likely effects
- Russian fuel supplyNegativeWeeks
Simultaneous hits on Kstovo, Russia's second-largest gasoline producer, and the 15 million tonne YANOS could tighten domestic gasoline supply.
- Diesel exportsNegativeWeeks
Refinery losses could strain Russia's November diesel export plans; the extent of losses at the 4 plants is not yet known.
- Kyiv–Washington channelNegativeWeeks
Targeting 4 refineries in election week could be read as an end to the pause Washington wanted, complicating talks on air defence.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Campaign stays intense55%
Kyiv keeps striking more than one refinery a week after the election, and Moscow tightens export curbs to protect the domestic market.
Watch: Number of refinery strikes confirmed by Russian official sources through November
- 2A new pause is negotiated30%
US pressure halts Kyiv again in exchange for Patriots or an energy ceasefire.
Watch: Washington approving additional Patriots or announcing an energy ceasefire
- 3Damage proves limited15%
The plants resume operation within days and the strikes cause no lasting loss of output.
Watch: Industry reports that primary distillation units at Kstovo and YANOS are running again
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- YANOS capacity▼ 15m t/yr
- First three targets▼ ~33m t/yr
- Share of Russian capacity▼ ~10%