What they did
On the night of 5 November it targeted Rosneft's Ryazan refinery, which processes about 17 million tonnes a year; the plant is the fifth Russian refinery hit since 30 October. The same day, at the 14th session of the intergovernmental commission with Azerbaijan in Uzhhorod, it discussed the Trans-Balkan route and access to gas storage. It shot down 105 of the 128 drones Russia launched on the night of 5 November.
Why
It is squeezing Russian fuel supply and gathering bargaining chips ahead of the Abu Dhabi round; the first three plants targeted accounted for about 10% of Russia's 2024 refining capacity. With its own grid and storage under attack, it is pushing its role as a transit and storage route for Caspian gas. The ceasefire set up for the Oleshky evacuation ended on 2 November; 9 civilians were killed in the past day.
What they must do
In Abu Dhabi it must seek gains on humanitarian and energy issues without ceding territory; find the air defence to keep the grid running through winter; sustain the refinery campaign without losing US support; and close a 2027 budget gap of about 37 billion dollars with external financing.
What comes next
Watch the three-way round in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November, a clearer picture of the damage at Ryazan, the volume of test flows on the Trans-Balkan line, Ukrenergo outage schedules, and the course of water and metro disruptions in Kyiv.
Preference
Keep Russia's energy, industrial and digital infrastructure under pressure; leave room to bargain with Washington by not formally claiming refinery strikes; bind Europe into defence financing.
Observed behaviour
It held off for 15 days under US pressure and struck again when nothing came in return; it avoids claiming targets, leaving operators and monitoring channels to release the information.
Sources
- Kyiv Independent — Russian attacks kill 9, injure 19 across Ukraine over past day
- Kyiv Independent — Drone attack sparks fires at industrial facilities in Russia's Ryazan
- Euromaidan Press — Five refineries in a week: drones set Russia's Ryazan fuel plant on fire
- Kyiv Independent — Ukrainian, Azerbaijani ministers meet in Uzhhorod for energy talks
- The Moscow Times — U.S.-Mediated Ukraine Peace Talks to Resume in Abu Dhabi Next Week
- Kyiv Independent — Ukraine heads for first economic decline since 2022 as Russian strikes take their toll
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