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Limited room for manoeuvre · updated 15 September 2026

What they did

Openly confirmed the counter-offensive north-west of Lyman and continued deep strikes on Russian energy facilities; on 1 September it hit the NOVATEK Ust-Luga complex.

Why

According to ISW, the territory it recaptured in August (129.81 km²) exceeded Russian gains (90.35 km²); it aims to limit Russian energy revenue through physical export capacity.

What they must do

It must protect its own power grid against mass drone attacks and sustain gains on the front under air defence pressure.

What comes next

The fate of the proposal for a pause in mutual strikes on energy infrastructure and grid resilience ahead of winter.

Preference

Forcing Russia to negotiate through energy revenue and battlefield losses.

Observed behaviour

A strategy combining long-range strikes on deep targets with limited counter-offensives on the front.

Sources

Related events

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