MediumII Cyber Warfare & Critical Infrastructure29 October 2026, Thursday
Yandex withdraws its 2026 guidance after strikes on its data centres
Alongside its third-quarter results on 29 October, Yandex withdrew its 2026 guidance of about 20% revenue growth and 350 billion roubles in adjusted EBITDA. The company cited the strikes on its data centres on 8–11 October and external factors.
According to Anadolu Agency, drones hit the Sasovo data centre in Ryazan on 8 October, Kaluga on 9 October and Vladimir on 11 October. Sasovo and Vladimir stopped operating, and part of Kaluga's infrastructure was knocked out. The Moscow Times reports that outages spread to taxi, car-sharing, food delivery, maps, email, banking and streaming services, as well as to public bodies that run on Yandex infrastructure. The impact of the three sites was felt nationwide. Because the strikes came after the quarter closed, their financial impact does not show in the third-quarter figures. The company's shares fell about 1.30% on the Moscow Exchange.
The numbers show the slowdown began before the strikes. Third-quarter revenue rose 12% to 411 billion roubles, against nine-month growth of 16% and a withdrawn full-year target of about 20%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to 88 billion roubles, and net profit rose 2% to 46 billion roubles. Search and AI revenue grew only 4% to 144.7 billion roubles, while personal subscriptions grew 37% to 75 billion roubles. Yandex said it would consider resuming guidance next quarter.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Physical strikes on data centres have, for the first time, produced a measurable corporate consequence at Russia's largest technology company: its annual guidance has been suspended. Third-quarter growth of 12% shows the 20% target was under strain before the strikes, so the withdrawal also partly masks a pre-existing slowdown. The real financial damage will show in the fourth-quarter results.
Likely effects
- Russian digital infrastructureNegative1–6 months
Because public bodies also rely on the Yandex cloud, strikes on three data centres become a single point of failure for state services.
- AI investmentNegative1–6 months
Growth of just 4% in search and AI revenue, combined with rebuilding costs, squeezes investment in compute.
- Ukraine's strike strategyUncertainWeeks
Targeting digital infrastructure adds a second vulnerable layer of the Russian economy alongside refineries.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Guidance returns after one quarter50%
The strikes are not repeated, and Yandex publishes 2027 guidance with its fourth-quarter results, booking the damage as a one-off cost.
Watch: The 2027 guidance and rebuilding costs in Yandex's fourth-quarter report
- 2Strikes continue35%
Ukraine widens its data centre targets, guidance stays suspended and outages spread to banking and public services.
Watch: Reports of new drone strikes on Yandex and other Russian cloud providers
- 3Costs shift to the state15%
Because public bodies use Yandex infrastructure, the state takes on the cost of protected data centres and the company's burden eases.
Watch: Russian government decisions on protecting critical data centres
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Withdrawn EBITDA guidance▼ RUB 350bn
- Third-quarter revenue▲ +12%
- Search and AI revenue▼ +4%