MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security5 October 2026, Monday
Greece will not seek Ankara's consent for Crete–Cyprus cable
Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis said on 5 October that Athens will not ask Türkiye's permission for surveys on the Crete–Cyprus power cable. At the same time Ankara has Oruç Reis working along the route of a natural gas pipeline to Cyprus.
According to ProtoThema, Gerapetritis said it was unthinkable that Türkiye would obstruct the work. About 60% of the surveys for the project, known as the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI), are complete. The remaining 40% lie in waters claimed by both Greece and Türkiye. The project has received a 657 million euro grant from the European Commission and is one of the EU's projects of common interest. Türkiye's Defence Ministry reiterated on Thursday that laying cables or pipes on its continental shelf must be coordinated with Türkiye as the coastal state.
Ankara's countermove comes through infrastructure. According to Hürriyet Daily News, the Antalya Hydrographic Station announced in NAVTEX 0953/26 that Oruç Reis will carry out surveys from 1 to 25 October. The ship is escorted by Denar Pathfinder, Denar Echo and Kırıcı. The planned line between Anamur and Teknecik in Northern Cyprus is 101 km long, 97 km of it subsea. It will carry gas in both directions; the memorandum of understanding was signed on 10 July, and the target start of operations is 2028.
Both projects run into the same constraint: an undelimited continental shelf in the Eastern Mediterranean. Türkiye bases its claim on a letter to the UN dated 18 March 2020. Because the remaining GSI route crosses exactly this disputed area, the timetable hinges on when Greece files its NAVTEX request.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Rivalry in the Eastern Mediterranean has shifted from drilling rigs to cable and pipeline routes. Athens must carry out the remaining 40% of its surveys in waters Türkiye claims, while Ankara is creating its own infrastructure fait accompli with the Cyprus line. The most likely path is that Greece delays its NAVTEX request to keep tensions in check. If it files, the risk of a naval standoff rises.
Likely effects
- Island energy securityUncertain6 months+
If the Anamur–Teknecik line enters service in 2028, Northern Cyprus's power generation will depend on gas from Türkiye and the island's energy will split into two separate grids.
- Türkiye–Greece relationsNegative1–6 months
With the remaining GSI surveys due in the disputed area, every NAVTEX carries the risk of both sides dispatching naval assets.
- EU energy projectsNegative1–6 months
As the timetable of a project backed by a 657 million euro grant snags on the disputed continental shelf, Cyprus's connection to the European grid is delayed.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Controlled delay55%
Greece holds back its NAVTEX for the remaining surveys, and both sides confine themselves to statements.
Watch: Whether Greece files a NAVTEX request for the remaining GSI surveys
- 2Standoff at sea30%
A Greek survey vessel enters the disputed area, and Türkiye responds with a counter-NAVTEX and naval units.
Watch: A counter-NAVTEX on the GSI route from the Turkish Defence Ministry or the Antalya station
- 3Diplomatic formula15%
The two sides find a tacit coordination formula for the surveys.
Watch: Announcement of talks on the cable between the Turkish and Greek foreign ministers
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- GSI surveys completed▲ ≈60%
- EU grant for GSI▲ €657m
- Anamur–Teknecik line▲ 101 km