Addis Ababa's business weekly warns a deferred payment is not forgiven debt

In an unsigned editorial dated 18 October, the Addis Ababa business weekly Capital argues that Ethiopia's debt problem should be judged not by the billions involved but by whether the financing strengthens the country's capacity to earn foreign currency. Drawing on an IMF–World Bank assessment, the paper puts net transfers from IDA at $1.1 billion in 2021/22, $1.7 billion in 2022/23 and $1.5 billion in 2023/24. IDA programmes approved in 2023/24 came to $3.2 billion. The editorial rejects reading the gap as money withheld: approvals are disbursed over several years, and net transfers are calculated after debt service.

The editorial applies the same rigour to the restructuring, citing a report dated 14 October. According to the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, Ethiopia has completed 11 of 14 bilateral agreements with members of the official creditor committee. The preliminary Eurobond settlement and the other agreements cover about 75% of external commercial debt, but the bond exchange is still pending. So that the 75% figure does not mislead, the paper stresses that an agreement in principle is not a completed deal, and that a deferred payment is not forgiven debt. A 2025 assessment found that more than 90% of the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia's domestic claims on state enterprises are concentrated in 3 entities that do not pay regularly.

The editorial's first recommendation is transparency. It asks the government for a regular financing table setting out commitments, inflows, grants, principal and interest, arrears and rescheduled obligations. The paper recalls that when external financing was scarce in 2023/24, the state leaned on Treasury bills and central bank advances, and it warns that market-based domestic borrowing carries higher costs and refinancing risk. Its second condition is that health, education and social protection spending be shielded during adjustment, and that every new project pass an independent review of cost, demand and maintenance.