
I Geo-Economics & ChokepointsSouth Asia
Seen from Karachi, severed Kabul trade is paid for by border traders
- Institution
- Dawn (editorial)
- Author
- Institutional publication
- Country · language
- Pakistan · English
- Affiliation
- Independent newspaper
Summary
In an editorial dated 20 October 2026, the Karachi-based Dawn takes stock of the first year of Islamabad cutting commercial ties with Kabul on security grounds. By the paper's account, trade between the two countries collapsed by more than 72%, from $1.3 billion in fiscal 2025 to $358 million in fiscal 2026. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa carries the heaviest cost. A province that already struggles to attract investment because of terrorism has lost an established market. That market rested on traders moving food, cement and medicine, and on the health tourism and hotel business serving Afghan visitors. Farmers and factories in Punjab and Sindh have been hit as well.
The editorial insists the problem is not bilateral trade alone. Pakistan's shortest overland routes to Central Asia run through Afghanistan, and the alternatives mean longer distances, higher freight and thinner margins, so exports to Central Asia have been badly disrupted too. Dawn accepts that Islamabad's security concerns are legitimate and writes that the Taliban must stop Afghan territory being used for attacks on Pakistan. Even so, it argues that a closure running for a year has punished citizens of both countries who have no part in Kabul's policies. The paper calls for genuine security guarantees from Kabul and tightly supervised arrangements for legitimate trade. It also wants the losses borne by traders, transporters and farmers accounted for, and new markets found for the businesses affected.
Blind spot
What the West misses: the Pakistan-Afghanistan border is read in Western capitals almost solely as a story about the TTP and conflict, and the fact that the closure also severs Pakistan's trade corridor to Central Asia goes unnoticed. The weakness: the editorial measures the loss only through the bilateral trade figure, without quantifying informal cross-border commerce or the cost of alternative routes.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Trade falling from $1.3 billion to $358 million shows that Pakistan has bought the security gain of its Afghanistan policy with an economic price. While frictions persist, such as the two-hour closure of the gates at Torkham over a checkpoint on 19 October, reopening the border looks difficult. The most likely path is that the closure holds and Pakistan shifts its Central Asia trade onto more expensive routes.
Likely effects
- Khyber Pakhtunkhwa economyNegative1–6 months
Losing the Afghan market hits employment and small business directly in a province that already cannot attract investment because of terrorism.
- Central Asia corridorNegative1–6 months
Closing the shortest overland route raises freight on Pakistan's exports to Central Asia and erodes its competitiveness.
- Türkiye and regional linksUncertain6 months+
A blocked Pakistan-Central Asia link through Afghanistan raises the importance of alternative corridors via Iran and the Caspian; an indirect factor in Türkiye's Middle Corridor calculation.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1The closure holds60%
Border clashes and TTP attacks continue and official trade stays at a low level.
Watch: Pakistan's monthly export data to Afghanistan and the status of crossings at Torkham
- 2Supervised partial reopening30%
With Gulf or Chinese mediation, tightly supervised trade resumes for specified goods.
Watch: Announcement of a trade or transit agreement between Islamabad and Kabul
- 3Full normalisation10%
The Taliban give concrete security guarantees and the crossings open fully to trade.
Watch: A verifiable step by the Taliban against the TTP
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Original publication: dawn.com · 20 October 2026
This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.