From Addis Ababa, Eritrea is the aggressor and Ethiopia acts in self-defence

Summary

A 12 October piece by Horn Review researcher Mahder Nesibu compares the letters the two capitals sent to the UN Security Council. On 9 October Ethiopia described the advance of Eritrean forces up to 60 kilometres into its territory as open aggression; Eritrea accused Ethiopia of preparing for a war it had been declaring for more than three years. The author recalls that the 2022 Pretoria agreement ended the Tigray war but that its implementation has faltered, and that the 2018 rapprochement between Addis Ababa and Asmara has unravelled.

In the author's account, the federal army has since late September 2026 been fighting a coalition of seven rebel groups led by the TPLF, including the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Afar revolutionary front ARDUF and the Oromo Liberation Army. Nesibu reads this as a revival of the proxy strategy Eritrea used during 18 years of 'no war, no peace'. As evidence he cites the Afar regional administrator's statement on 28 September that Eritreans were fighting alongside the rebels, and the Eritrean army's entry into Adigrat, Tigray's second-largest city.

The author argues that Eritrea moved to direct intervention after the rebel offensive of late September 2026 collapsed faster than expected and the buffer zone disintegrated. In his view, Eritrea's 9 October reply recycled the narrative about access to the sea, although Ethiopia had ruled out gaining sea access by force. His verdict has two parts: the entry of Eritrean troops is a direct attack on a sovereign state, and Ethiopia's claim of self-defence rests on Article 51 of the UN Charter.