Premium Times columnist says 4% growth will not break Nigerian poverty

Posi Olatubosun, a lecturer in accounting and finance in the UK, argues in Premium Times on 22 October that Nigeria's improved growth forecasts are not enough to change people's lives. The IMF has raised its 2026 forecast to 4.2% and expects 4.3% in 2027; the World Bank projects 4.3% in 2026 and an average of 4.4% in 2027–2028. Official data show the economy grew 4.43% in the second quarter, up from 3.89% in the first. With the population rising by about 2.5% a year, per capita income grows by only 1.5–2%; at that pace, the author reckons, average income would take more than 30 years to double.

The author gives 3 reasons why growth is not reaching most people. The first is composition: growth is carried by finance, telecoms, trade and oil, sectors that create few jobs per unit of output, while agriculture and manufacturing, which employ large numbers, struggle with insecurity, high input costs and unreliable power. The second is the legacy of inflation: prices have not come back down, wages have not kept up and real incomes have fallen. The third is small businesses, which still face high interest rates and scarce credit; the central bank's latest rate cut will take time to filter through.

Olatubosun writes that a genuine break in poverty and unemployment would require growth of 7–8% sustained for years. He wants labour-intensive sectors such as agro-processing, light manufacturing, construction, logistics and digital services promoted beyond Lagos and Abuja. He calls for public investment to go to electricity, rural security and rural infrastructure, and for education and health spending to be protected. He warns that political spending ahead of the election could reignite inflation, and points to the World Bank's 5.79 billion dollars in private financing and its target of 850,000 jobs.