III Kinetic Conflicts & Defence Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

A Red Sea security architecture that is institutionally dense but selective on the ground

Institution: SETA
Author: Tunç Demirtaş
Country · language: Türkiye · Turkish
Affiliation: Government-aligned think tank

Summary

Demirtaş does not see the Multinational Maritime Defence Alliance, founded in Riyadh on 30 July with 14 founding members, merely as a response to the Houthi threat; he regards it as an institutionalised product of the regional security network. Türkiye is one of the alliance's founding members. Ankara also signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on 7 August; the author describes it as the first Article 5-type commitment Türkiye has undertaken outside NATO.

The author describes the US posture as selective retrenchment: Washington leaves leadership to regional actors while retaining the decision to escalate. He notes that Iran may perceive this arrangement as an attempt at containment and respond by indirect means. The scenario Demirtaş considers most likely is a hybrid model that is institutionally strong but selective on the ground; the attacks that followed shortly after the agreement also show the gap between institutional density and operational capacity.

Blind spot

What the West misses: the alliance is read as filling a vacuum left by the US, whereas Türkiye is taking on a layered role along the Red Sea–Indian Ocean axis through its agreements with Somalia, Libya and Mecca. Weakness of this reading: the cost to Türkiye of a binding defence commitment and the risk of conflict with NATO are addressed only to a limited extent.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The hybrid model Demirtaş anticipates, institutionally dense but operationally selective, is already being confirmed: there was no collective response to the Houthi attack on the Aramco facility in Jizan two days after the Mecca agreement, and Pakistan's statements after the mid-September Houthi attacks came without military detail. The analysis does not sufficiently weigh the cost of a binding commitment to Türkiye or the risk of friction with NATO. The most likely path is the structure operating at the level of statements and consultation; the main risk is that the Saudi–Houthi conflict forces Ankara to choose between a concrete contribution and a loss of credibility.

Likely effects

Türkiye's commitment riskNegativeWeeks
Its first Article 5-style commitment outside NATO has come under concrete test with Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Ankara's response will generate costs for relations both with its pact partners and with Iran.
Türkiye in the Horn of AfricaNegative1–6 months
Its deep role in Somalia is showing fragility with anti-Türkiye protests in Jubaland after the Doolow attack; a layered Red Sea role also brings the risk of political backlash on the ground.
US–regional burden sharingUncertain6 months+
Washington leaves leadership to regional actors while retaining control over escalation. This tests the capacity of regional alliances while keeping the US decisive at critical moments.
Iran's indirect responseNegative1–6 months
If Tehran perceives the structure as containment, it may raise pressure via the Houthis and groups in Iraq rather than through direct confrontation; drones from Iraq striking the East-West pipeline show this channel is working.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Institutionally dense, operationally selective60%
The author's baseline: the alliance works through meetings and statements, national and bilateral steps take precedence over joint operations, and Türkiye confines itself to diplomatic support.
Watch: Responses under the Mecca agreement remaining at the level of statements; consultation meetings instead of joint operations
2
Kinetic transformation15%
A limited joint military response under Pakistani leadership; concrete contributions such as air defence or naval patrols force Türkiye to take a position too.
Watch: Pakistan deploying military assets to Saudi Arabia; Türkiye announcing a concrete contribution
3
Symbolic freeze15%
Having failed its first tests, the structure suffers a loss of trust among members and remains on paper.
Watch: A founding member suspending participation in alliance activities
4
Diplomatic thaw10%
The Saudi–Houthi ceasefire and Iran–Gulf talks resume; the alliance's military dimension recedes into the background.
Watch: The Salalah meeting taking place and a renewed Saudi–Houthi ceasefire announcement

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Original publication: setav.org · 3 September 2026

This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.