IV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt
Fed blackout period
The quiet period before and just after each monetary policy meeting during which FOMC members refrain from public comment on the economy and interest rates.
How it works
Participants in the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meaning Board governors and regional Fed presidents, enter a blackout before every scheduled meeting. Under the committee's external communications policy, they do not express views on macroeconomic developments or monetary policy in public settings or interviews during this period.
The blackout begins at midnight US Eastern time on the second Saturday before the meeting and ends at 11:59 pm on the day after it. For a meeting running from Tuesday to Wednesday, it starts on the Saturday ten days earlier and ends on Thursday night. For the 27–28 October 2026 meeting, the blackout began on 17 October and ends at the close of 29 October.
The measurement trap is mistaking the market's search for direction during the blackout for a signal from the Fed. In this window pricing is moved only by data, market conditions and unsourced press reports. That is why the last speech before the blackout carries extra weight.
Why it matters here
Geopolitical shocks do not wait for the Fed to speak. If oil or conflict news breaks during the blackout, the Fed cannot comment on it until the meeting. The market prices the shock's effect on rates on its own. Volatility in the blackout is therefore a vacuum, not a signal. When reading a jump in rate expectations, we first check whether we are inside the blackout and then separate data from rumour as the source.