MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints22 September 2026, Tuesday
EU renews individual Russia sanctions for 36 months instead of 6; Usmanov and Fridman removed from the list
On 22 September 2026, after two weeks of bargaining, EU ambassadors renewed the individual sanctions list targeting Russia for 36 months for the first time. As the price, two billionaires, Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman, were removed from the list; Latvia abstained, allowing unanimity.
According to a Euronews report dated 22 September 2026, the list covers more than 2,600 individuals, entities and assets and will now be renewed every 36 months rather than every 6 months. Global Banking & Finance Review, by contrast, reports that around 3,000 entries remain on the list; the sources do not explain the difference between the two figures. According to the same source, the list was actually due to expire on 15 September and the deadline had been extended to midnight on 22 September; Latvia halted the process on Monday 21 September, moved to constructive abstention on the afternoon of 22 September, and the decision was adopted by written procedure.
According to Euronews, France sought the removal of the 73-year-old Usmanov as part of a deal linked to the release of 2 French citizens held in Azerbaijan; one of the prisoners had been sentenced to 12 years in 2024 and the other to 10 years in 2026. Luxembourg argued that Fridman, who has a 16 billion dollar arbitration claim against it, should receive the same treatment; Slovakia vetoed Fridman remaining on the list. Ukraine's Foreign Minister called the decision shameful and indefensible; Latvia said it planned to introduce national sanctions.
The claim by diplomats that Baku used the Usmanov file as a bargaining chip against Paris could not be independently verified as of 23 September. It is unclear whether the decision will set a precedent for other removal requests in the 27-member bloc within a year.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The 36-month renewal is a structural gain that frees the EU sanctions regime from exposure to a single member's veto every 6 months. But the price, the delisting of 2 billionaires, showed that third countries can open the EU list to bargaining through prisoner or arbitration files. Sanctions pressure will not ease in practice in the near term; the precedent risk, however, is lasting.
Likely effects
- Sanctions regime predictabilityPositive6 months+
Extending the renewal cycle to 36 months reduces periodic veto bargaining over the list and makes compliance planning easier for companies.
- Precedent and bargaining riskNegative1–6 months
The fact that prisoners in Azerbaijan and a 16 billion dollar arbitration claim against Luxembourg determined delistings may steer other actors towards similar leverage.
- Türkiye and sanctions complianceUncertain1–6 months
Fixing the list for 36 months provides a more stable reference for EU-list-based compliance screening by Turkish banks and companies trading with Russia.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1List stays fixed60%
The 36-month framework holds, new removal requests are rejected one by one and rounds of additions continue.
Watch: New names added in the next sanctions package and no removal requests submitted
- 2Precedent widens25%
Other members or third countries bring new removal requests through similar bilateral files.
Watch: A formal removal request by a member state for another name
- 3National lists diverge15%
Following Latvia, other members open national sanctions lists and diverge from the EU list.
Watch: Latvia publishing its national sanctions decision and the Baltic states following suit
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Renewal period▲ 6 → 36 months
- Billionaires delisted▼ 2