MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security28 October 2026, Wednesday · 17:30 TRT (UTC+3)
US distillate stocks fall 10% below the five-year average
US distillate inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels to 102.8 million barrels in the week to 23 October, according to weekly data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on 28 October. That is 10% below the five-year seasonal average.
EIA data reported by OGJ show commercial crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels in the week ending 23 October, 4% below the five-year average. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a build of 15,000 barrels. For distillates, meaning diesel and heating oil, the consensus was a 0.9 million barrel draw; the actual draw was 1.5 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels to 209.2 million barrels, against expectations of a 0.9 million barrel draw.
Refiners also cut runs. EIA data show refinery utilisation fell 0.6 points to 92.8%, and crude runs dropped by 123,000 barrels a day. Two sources highlight different import figures. OGJ wrote that gross crude imports rose by 616,000 barrels a day to 6.4 million barrels a day, while Reuters said net crude imports fell by 796,000 barrels a day. The gap points to higher exports, but neither report gave the export figure. According to the EIA table, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stood at 282.6 million barrels on 23 October, down from 283.0 million barrels on 9 October.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The crude draw surprised the consensus, but the real squeeze is in diesel: distillate stocks are 10% below average and refiners are cutting capacity. Rising gasoline stocks provide a buffer that suits Washington's political focus on pump prices; there is no equivalent buffer for diesel. The most likely path is that diesel margins stay high heading into winter.
Likely effects
- Diesel pricesNegativeWeeks
With distillate stocks 10% below average, diesel margins and export demand come under pressure ahead of the heating season.
- Gasoline pricesPositiveWeeks
A 3.9 million barrel gasoline build gives US pump prices a near-term cushion ahead of the 3 November election.
- TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
Tighter diesel in the Atlantic basin raises the cost of alternative sources for Türkiye's diesel imports and feeds into pump prices.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Diesel squeeze persists55%
Distillate stocks stay roughly 10% below average through November and diesel margins remain high.
Watch: Distillate stocks in the next EIA weekly report
- 2Recovery as refineries return30%
Utilisation rises after maintenance and distillate output partly closes the stock gap.
Watch: Refinery utilisation rising above 92.8%
- 3Demand weakens15%
High prices curb diesel demand and the stock gap closes through demand.
Watch: The EIA four-week average of distillate product supplied
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- US commercial crude stocks▲ −1.9m bbl
- Distillates (vs 5-yr avg)▼ −10%
- Refinery utilisation▼ 92.8%
Historical context