MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security28 October 2026, Wednesday
US exports drive Gulf Coast crude stocks to their lowest since 2024
US commercial crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels in the week to 23 October, according to weekly EIA data released on 28 October. With crude exports up 1.4 million barrels a day, Gulf Coast stocks dropped to their lowest level since December 2024.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on 28 October show commercial crude stocks, excluding the strategic reserve, fell by 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels in the week ending 23 October. Analysts in a Reuters poll cited by Kitco had expected a build of 15,000 barrels. According to Oil & Gas Journal, stocks are 4% below the five-year average. Inventories at the Cushing delivery hub fell by 624,000 barrels, and Gulf Coast stocks reached their lowest since December 2024. Exports drove the draw: crude exports rose by 1.4 million barrels a day on the week to 4.85 million barrels a day, while net crude imports fell by 796,000 barrels a day.
The product picture is mixed. Gasoline stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels to 209.2 million barrels, against an expected draw of 0.9 million barrels, while Midwest gasoline stocks are at a record low. Distillate stocks, which include diesel, fell by 1.5 million barrels to 102.8 million barrels, 10% below the five-year average. Refinery utilisation slipped 0.6 points to 92.8%. The data are contested. Matt Smith of Kpler said the EIA had overestimated crude exports and that observed loadings were about 1 million barrels a day lower. According to Kitco, at 11:00 ET Brent was up 1.78 dollars at 115.66 dollars and WTI up 2.48 dollars at 102.38 dollars.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
By shipping crude to the world in a high-price environment, the US is thinning its own buffer: exports have climbed to 4.85 million barrels a day while Gulf Coast stocks sit at their lowest since 2024. Distillate stocks 10% below the five-year average keep diesel prices, and with them the Fed's concern over energy-driven inflation, alive. If Kpler's challenge to the export figure is borne out, part of the stock draw could turn out to be measurement error.
Likely effects
- Diesel pricesNegativeWeeks
With distillate stocks at 102.8 million barrels and 10% below the five-year average, diesel and heating fuel prices stay high heading into winter.
- US inflationNegative1–6 months
Persistently high fuel prices keep energy-driven inflationary pressure on the agenda ahead of the Fed's December meeting.
- Global supplyPositiveWeeks
US exports of 4.85 million barrels a day provide an alternative for European and Asian refiners.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1High exports, stocks drain55%
Exports stay above 4 million barrels a day and Gulf Coast stocks keep falling.
Watch: Gulf Coast stocks and crude exports in the 4 November EIA weekly report
- 2Export data corrected30%
Exports fall back in the coming weeks and part of the stock draw reverses, vindicating Kpler.
Watch: The gap between EIA monthly export revisions and tanker tracking data
- 3Strategic reserve steps in15%
If Gulf Coast stocks reach a critical level, the Energy Department opens a new exchange or sale.
Watch: An Energy Department announcement of a new exchange from the strategic reserve
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Commercial crude stocks▼ −1.9m bbl
- Crude exports▲ 4.85m b/d
- Distillate stocks▼ −10% vs 5-yr avg
Historical context