HighVI Energy Politics & Supply Security9 October 2026, Friday

US grants Russian diesel a temporary licence until April 2027

OFAC, the US Treasury's sanctions office, on 9 October issued General Licence 135, which authorises the sale of Russian-origin diesel and its import into the US until 7 April 2027. Trump said Russia would supply 300,000 tonnes of diesel first and 500,000 tonnes in November.

Location: WASHINGTON

The headline is the Trump–Putin diesel bargain, but the constraint that sets prices lies in the scope of the licence. According to the Kyiv Independent, Trump said Russia would release 300,000 tonnes immediately, 500,000 tonnes in November and then 1 million tonnes. A Diplomacy and Law review of the licence text says General Licence 135 authorises sale, delivery, offloading and import into the US. It sets no volume cap, and payments from US accounts of Russia's central bank, National Wealth Fund and finance ministry remain prohibited.

The market priced products, not crude, that day. According to Strategitz's 9 October close summary, NYMEX diesel futures fell as much as 4.08% intraday and settled 2.91% lower at about $4.74 a gallon. European gasoil futures dropped 3.44% to about $1,390 a tonne, while Brent closed up 0.4% at around $104.70. The EIA says US retail diesel averaged $6.199 a gallon in the week of 5 October, $2.488 above a year earlier.

The licence has two limits. Ukraine's sanctions envoy Vladyslav Vlasiuk told the Kyiv Independent that 300,000 tonnes equals about 15 hours of US diesel consumption. Russia had banned diesel exports by producers until 31 October; according to Euronews, the White House has not said when the diesel will arrive or who will pay for it. Diplomacy and Law notes that the 2022 ban on imports of Russian oil was not explicitly lifted by the licence. A sanctions law that took effect on 18 September 2026 also provides for tariffs of up to 500% on Russian energy imports.

The timing coincides with the 3 November midterm elections. According to Euronews, the decision came about a month after Trump signed broad sanctions on Russia's energy sector. The Kyiv Independent reported that Democratic senators Shaheen, Schumer and Warren called the move a betrayal of Ukraine and European allies, and Zelensky said it would finance Russia's war.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The licence manages price expectations, not the diesel shortage. The first 800,000 tonnes announced cover only a few days of US consumption, yet futures stripped about 3% out of the product premium the same day. The likeliest path is brief relief. Russia's export ban, in place until 31 October, and legal uncertainty in the US will limit physical deliveries.

Likely effects

Diesel pricesPositiveWeeks
Expectations that Russian diesel will enter the product pool cut diesel and gasoil futures by 2.91% and 3.44%; if deliveries slip, the relief could unwind.
Sanctions regimeNegative1–6 months
A licence issued in the same month as Congress's September sanctions law shows energy sanctions on Russia turning into a bargaining chip tied to the election calendar.
Türkiye's diesel billPositiveWeeks
European gasoil is the key benchmark for Mediterranean diesel pricing; if the 3.44% drop holds, it feeds through to Türkiye's import bill and pump prices with a lag.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Limited deliveries, brief relief55%
Russia's ban pushes flows into November, and diesel futures retrace part of the 9 October drop.
Watch: Russia's 31 October decision on its diesel export ban and the EIA's weekly diesel price for 14 October
2
Flows begin, product premium eases30%
Tankers loaded with Russian diesel reach US and European ports in early November and the gasoil decline holds.
Watch: Arrivals of tankers carrying Russian diesel and gasoil futures staying below $1,390
3
Legal challenge halts the licence15%
A challenge based on the 2022 import ban, or action in Congress, blocks physical imports.
Watch: A bill in Congress against the licence or a lawsuit citing the 2022 law

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

US diesel futures▼ −2.91%
European gasoil▼ −3.44%
Brent▲ +0.4%

Historical context