MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security13 October 2026, Tuesday
Twelve US senators urge Trump to scrap the Russian diesel deal
Twelve US senators, six Republicans and six Democrats, wrote to Trump on 13 October asking him to withdraw the sanctions waiver granted to Russian diesel. CBS says the deal covers an initial 300,000-tonne tranche and millions of tonnes in later months.
The letter was started by Democratic Senator Blumenthal; Republican signatories include Tillis, Collins, Murkowski, McConnell and Cornyn. According to CBS, the senators wrote that the deal would have a negligible effect on fuel prices while Kremlin revenue would fund the war. Bloomberg HT says the letter also stressed that Russia could use the money to advance security cooperation with China, Iran and North Korea.
According to Ivan Timofeev of the Valdai Club, the OFAC licence was issued on 9 October and permits the sale, delivery and import of Russian diesel until 7 April 2027. Timofeev wrote that the licence can be revoked at any time, and that the 2026 Russia–Iran sanctions law, enacted in September, requires a written report to Congress, a route the licence did not use. On 10 October Russia had partly eased its export ban with a 500,000-tonne tranche.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The licence is a legally revocable exemption; the sanctions have not been lifted. The objection of 12 senators from both parties brings the tension between fuel prices before the midterms and support for Ukraine into Congress. The likeliest path is that the licence stays, but Congress steps up pressure through the reporting requirement.
Likely effects
- Diesel supplyUncertainWeeks
The initial 300,000-tonne tranche makes a limited dent in the global diesel shortfall; licence risk adds a term premium to Russian product.
- Russian budgetNegative1–6 months
As product exports reopen, Moscow's foreign-currency income rises; the pause in refinery strikes protects that income.
- US domestic politicsUncertain1–6 months
With signatures split six to six, the sanctions law's reporting requirement becomes an oversight tool in Congress's hands.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Licence stays, pressure grows60%
The White House does not back down; Congress raises pressure through the reporting requirement and hearings.
Watch: A Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the licence
- 2Licence narrowed25%
The Treasury narrows the licence with volume or time limits.
Watch: A change to the OFAC licence text
- 3Licence revoked15%
Trump withdraws the licence as Russia keeps attacking the grid.
Watch: An OFAC announcement of revocation or early termination
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- First diesel tranche▲ 300,000 t
- Licence expiry▲ 7 Apr 2027