MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence27 September 2026, Sunday
Araghchi says Trump's rejection never came through the Qatari channel
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC on 27 September that Trump's rejection of the 7-day Hormuz plan had not been formally conveyed through the mediators. US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz, for his part, called the offer cynical.
According to an NBC News report on 27 September, Araghchi told Meet the Press that Iran was fully prepared for the war to resume but remained open to diplomacy. Last week, during the UN General Assembly, Iran had proposed reopening Hormuz within 7 days through Qatari mediation. The offer included the release of frozen assets and permission to sell oil. Trump announced on 26 September that he had rejected it. Araghchi stressed that the rejection had not arrived through the official mediation channel.
According to a report in The National on 27 September, Araghchi claimed the US had launched attacks twice while talks were under way, in 2025 and in February 2026. He also said Washington had broken a memorandum of understanding 2 weeks after signing it. Waltz said Trump was not convinced Iran had come in good faith. He argued that Iran had violated the June ceasefire by attacking commercial ships. According to a poll cited by NBC, 69% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the Iran war. The two sides disagree even on which channel is binding, which shows the timetable remained unclear as of 28 September.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
By not treating Trump's public rejection as a formal reply, Tehran is keeping the Qatari channel open and trying to preserve its bargaining position. Washington's stance on assets and sanctions, however, appears unchanged. In the near term this points less to a formal deal than to a continued wait for a written reply via the mediator.
Likely effects
- Diplomatic processUncertainWeeks
Iran's wait for a formal reply keeps Qatari mediation at the centre, but the two sides' disagreement over the binding channel is stretching the timetable.
- Oil risk premiumNegativeWeeks
With both sides saying the military option remains open, the Hormuz-related risk premium is hard to erase in the near term.
- US domestic politicsUncertain1–6 months
With 69% of Americans disapproving of the handling of the war, Washington faces higher costs both in keeping up pressure and in seeking a deal.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Waiting for a written reply50%
A formal US reply arrives via Qatar but there is no agreement on core conditions; talks continue at a slow pace.
Watch: A statement that Qatar has passed the US reply to Tehran
- 2A new round opens30%
The sides meet on a partial formula over assets or the blockade, and a new date for talks is announced.
Watch: A joint or simultaneous announcement of talks from the US and Iran
- 3Military escalation20%
The diplomatic channel stalls and one side takes a military step that worsens the situation in Hormuz.
Watch: A statement on military action from CENTCOM or the Iranian armed forces
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Proposed reopening period▼ 7 days
- Americans disapproving of the war▼ 69%