Oversubscribed Asian treaties face rate cuts of up to 20% in January

According to Pang, treaties are being oversubscribed by more than 100%, meaning the capacity reinsurers offer clearly exceeds what the treaty needs. Pang puts global reinsurance capital at about 650 billion dollars and says demand is not keeping up with that supply. He expects property catastrophe premium income to fall 20–25% at the renewals, although the pace of reductions is slowing compared with previous major renewals.

Reinsurers are trying to recoup the 15–20% price loss through terms. In Pang's assessment on 5 November, policy wordings and endorsements are tightening, and cedents, the insurers passing on the risk, are retaining a larger share. He does not expect the market to turn within 12 months as long as return on capital stays around 15%; a severe catastrophe could change that timetable.

Kotak, Munich Re's chief executive for Japan, India, South Korea and Southeast Asia, said on 5 November that negotiations are moving beyond price towards solutions such as growth financing and capital optimisation. Munich Re says it is growing in four selected areas: construction, data centres, renewable energy and cyber. Data centres, most of which are still under construction, are insured on a facultative basis, meaning risk by risk under individual policies.

The picture in Asia matches the global trend. JP Morgan forecast on 6 November that property catastrophe rates, which fell 12% in January 2026 and 16% in July 2026, will post another double-digit decline on 1 January 2027. Marsh data show primary insurance rates in Asia fell 6% in the third quarter, the 11th consecutive quarterly decline; Kotak says this softening in the primary market will eventually feed through to reinsurance.