MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI5 November 2026, Thursday
600,000 Nvidia chips sit in Hong Kong awaiting Beijing's approval
About 600,000 Nvidia H200 chips are sitting in warehouses in Hong Kong because Beijing has not allowed large-volume imports, according to a Reuters report on 5 November citing two sources. US export licences have been available since December 2025, but China's import approval remains a separate gate.
According to the Reuters report of 5 November, republished by The Express Tribune, the stockpile had not previously been reported. Three sources say Beijing has approved some H200s in recent months but not large volumes. One source says several major Chinese internet companies have each been able to buy about 10,000 H200s in recent months. The Information reported in July that the total of foreign chips China approves could stay below 200,000, less than a third of the Hong Kong stockpile.
The price of the constraint shows up in the grey market. According to one source, an 8-card H200 server was being offered in mainland China for more than 6 million yuan (about 900,000 dollars) at the end of October, roughly 3 times its price a year earlier. Servers with Blackwell chips, which Washington bars from sale to China, were priced above 20 million yuan. TNW reported on 6 November that Nvidia's latest quarterly report put H200 sales to China at less than 1% of data centre revenue and that the company booked a 400 million dollar provision for unsold H200 inventory.
Beijing's aim is to steer 4 companies, Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent and DeepSeek, towards domestic processors, particularly for inference, where a trained model generates responses for users. According to Reuters, the same companies ordered more than 3 million RTX Pro cards worth over 35 billion dollars in total in October; demand has not died but shifted to the product that passes the approval gate most easily. China's Ministry of Industry, the National Development and Reform Commission and Nvidia did not respond to requests for comment on 5 November.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The binding gate for AI chips has moved from Washington's export licence to Beijing's import approval. The gap between a 600,000-unit stockpile and a possible approval cap below 200,000 shows China choosing to ration foreign chips by quota and create demand for domestic processors. The most likely path is controlled, piecemeal approval; a large-volume release depends on US–China bargaining.
Likely effects
- Nvidia China revenueNegative1–6 months
While licensed product sits in Hong Kong, China sales stay below 1% of data centre revenue; the 400 million dollar provision may herald further write-downs.
- Chinese domestic chipsPositive1–6 months
An approval cap below 200,000 channels inference demand to domestic processors and opens a protected market for local producers.
- Grey marketNegativeWeeks
Server prices roughly tripling in a year make indirect shipments more profitable and add to Washington's enforcement burden.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Piecemeal approval under quota60%
Beijing keeps approving large companies in tranches of 10,000, and the Hong Kong stockpile runs down over months.
Watch: New H200 delivery announcements from Chinese companies and the China share in Nvidia's quarterly report
- 2Bulk approval in a bargain25%
A US–China package before 10 January 2027 leads Beijing to release large volumes.
Watch: A joint statement before the 10 January 2027 truce deadline
- 3Stock diverted to other markets15%
No approval comes, and Nvidia redirects the stock to other markets or books an additional provision.
Watch: Nvidia raising its H200 inventory provision next quarter
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- H200 stock in Hong Kong▼ ~600,000
- H200 server grey-market price▲ ~3x
- Possible Chinese approval cap▼ <200,000