MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence15 September 2026, Tuesday
Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal sentences seven Awami League leaders, including Obaidul Quader, to death in absentia
On 15 September ICT-2 sentenced seven people, including former ministers Obaidul Quader and Mohammad Ali Arafat, to death for crimes against humanity in the bloody suppression of the 2024 uprising. Sheikh Hasina's deadline to appeal had expired on 7 September.
The three-judge International Crimes Tribunal-2, chaired by Justice Nazrul Islam Chowdhury, on 15 September sentenced to death Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader, former state minister for information Mohammad Ali Arafat, AFM Bahauddin Nasim, Sheikh Fazle Shams Parash, Moinul Hossain Nikhil, Saddam Hussain and Sheikh Wali Asif Enan. The tribunal ordered the confiscation of half of the assets of five defendants and the transfer of proceeds from their sale to the families of those killed and to those injured in the uprising. According to UN figures, at least 1,400 people were killed in the 2024 uprising. According to the Express Tribune, all of the convicts are fugitives and are in India and the US.
The verdict shows that judicial proceedings against cadres of the former ruling party have accelerated under the Tarique Rahman government formed after the February 2026 elections. Chief Prosecutor Aminul Islam announced on 7 September that Sheikh Hasina's right to appeal her death sentence had lapsed because the 30-day deadline had passed. Hasina's presence in India and the lack of any result from the extradition request remain the biggest problem in Dhaka–New Delhi relations. With some of the convicts also in India, new extradition requests are more likely to put further strain on bilateral trade, energy and border cooperation.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The death sentences in absentia for seven Awami League leaders confirm that judicial proceedings against the former ruling party's cadres have accelerated under the Tarique Rahman government. As all the convicts are fugitives in India and the US, the sentences are unlikely to be carried out soon; the main consequence is diplomatic. The most likely path is that extradition requests go unanswered and Dhaka–New Delhi relations remain tense but manageable.
Likely effects
- Bangladesh–India relationsNegative1–6 months
With some of the convicts in India alongside Hasina, new extradition requests are likely, increasing the chance of strain on bilateral trade, energy and border cooperation.
- Bangladesh domestic politicsNegative6 months+
The de facto exclusion of the former ruling party's leadership from politics through convictions in absentia may deepen polarisation and create a lasting source of tension among the Awami League base.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Fruitless extradition requests, managed tension70%
Dhaka keeps pressing extradition requests and New Delhi does not respond; relations stay tense but trade and energy cooperation are not severed.
Watch: New formal extradition requests from Dhaka and the response of India's Ministry of External Affairs
- 2Marked deterioration in bilateral ties20%
The extradition dispute spills over into trade, energy or border issues; the sides take reciprocal restrictive steps.
Watch: Suspension of bilateral trade or energy agreements or new restrictions at the border
- 3Extradition or arrest of a convict10%
One of the convicts is detained or extradited by the host country, triggering a new wave of political tension.
Watch: A detention or extradition decision concerning one of the convicts in India or the US
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.