MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security12 October 2026, Monday

In Riyadh, Bayraktar tables a four-country power link to Saudi Arabia

Energy Minister Bayraktar told the 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh on 12 October that Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Türkiye are discussing a major electricity interconnector. He added that the 1.5 million barrels a day of capacity on the Iraq–Türkiye pipeline needs to be filled.

Location: RIYADH

Daily Sabah, citing AA on 12 October, reported that Bayraktar said the four countries are discussing a power transmission project; no cost, capacity or timetable was given. According to AA, Bayraktar opened the congress exhibition alongside his Saudi counterpart, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. He cited the 5,000-megawatt renewable energy agreement signed this year as the foundation of their cooperation. He also held separate meetings with ministers from Iraq, Uzbekistan and Libya.

Bayraktar said filling spare capacity on TANAP with additional gas is under consideration, adding that sourcing gas is getting harder in current market conditions. He said there was no problem with the supply of oil and products, and set the goal of running TANAP, TurkStream, Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan and the Iraq–Türkiye lines at full capacity. The National reported on 1 August that flows to Ceyhan had dropped from about 3.5 million barrels a day before the war to 200,000 barrels a day. That figure dates from early August, and current flows could not be verified.

The congress opened under the shadow of Houthi attacks. According to MarineLink, the chief executives of ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell, Chevron and BP were absent from the programme published on 12 October; the congress centre lies about 10 kilometres from the airport. ICE Brent futures closed the same day up 2.48% at $106.12.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

With Hormuz effectively closed, Ankara is trying to anchor its energy supply to overland routes and a Gulf partnership. There is no concrete step yet: the interconnector's cost and timetable have not been disclosed, and the Iraqi pipeline is running far below capacity. The most likely path is for the project to stay at the level of intent, leaving the energy bill tied to Brent in the near term.

Likely effects

Türkiye's energy billNegativeWeeks
While Brent holds above $106, the energy import bill, up 33.8% year on year in August, stays high; new lines can ease that pressure only over years.
Regional power tradePositive6 months+
A four-country line could turn Türkiye into a transit corridor for Gulf renewable power to Europe; security on the Syrian section is the main uncertainty.
Iraqi oil flowsPositive1–6 months
Filling the Ceyhan line would reduce Iraqi exporters' dependence on Hormuz and raise BOTAŞ's transit revenue.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Stays at the level of intent60%
A joint working group is set up for the interconnector, but no feasibility study or financing is announced in 2026.
Watch: A memorandum of understanding signed by the four countries' energy ministers
2
An MoU is signed30%
A memorandum of understanding setting out capacity and route is signed before or during COP31 in Antalya on 9–20 November.
Watch: The agenda for COP31 in Antalya, opening on 9 November, and Energy Ministry announcements
3
Security freezes the project10%
Houthi attacks spread to Saudi energy facilities, and Gulf investment is put on hold.
Watch: A new attack on Saudi energy facilities and a statement from Aramco

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Brent futures▼ $106.12
Iraq–Türkiye pipeline capacity▲ 1.5m barrels/day
Saudi renewables deal▲ 5,000 MW

Historical context