MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence16 September 2026, Wednesday
UN says apparent stability in Afghanistan masks growing risks: 1.15 million people have returned and only 29.9% of the aid plan is funded
The UN Secretary-General's report presented at the Security Council meeting on 16 September warns of returns, food insecurity and civilian casualties on the Pakistan border in the fifth year of Taliban rule.
According to the UN Secretary-General's report (S/2026/724) cited by KabulNow, about 1.15 million Afghans returned from neighbouring countries between 1 January and 22 August 2026; roughly 686,000 of them came from Pakistan and 465,000 from Iran. In 2026, 13.8 million people are expected to face crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity, and 3.7 million children are at risk of acute malnutrition. Only 513 million dollars (29.9%) of the 1.7 billion dollar humanitarian response plan has been met. The report documented around 399 civilian casualties on the Pakistan border between April and June and recorded that 28 people were killed in Pakistani air strikes on 28 June. According to AA, Georgette Gagnon of UNAMA warned the Council that stability risks were accumulating.
The report shows that the Pakistan-Afghanistan war that began in February 2026 and Pakistan's policy of mass deportations are squeezing Afghanistan's economy. The TTP's presence in Afghanistan remains the core problem on the Islamabad–Kabul axis. The annual cost of the education ban on girls is estimated at 84 million dollars. Combined with millions of returnees, donor fatigue could drive up instability and migration pressure once again. This in turn raises security and trade risks on the Pakistan and Iran borders.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The UN report shows that the apparent stability in the fifth year of Taliban rule rests on fragile foundations: 1.15 million returns in the first eight months of the year, an aid plan only 29.9% funded and the ongoing war with Pakistan are exerting pressure at the same time. Slow deterioration rather than sudden collapse is the most likely path; while donor fatigue persists, food insecurity and migration pressure will grow.
Likely effects
- Afghan humanitarian situationNegative1–6 months
With 13.8 million people expected to face crisis or emergency food insecurity and funding below one third, returnees and the 3.7 million children at risk are directly affected.
- Pakistan–Afghanistan borderNegative1–6 months
Some 399 civilian casualties documented in April–June and the TTP issue keep border trade and security under constant risk; the danger of escalation between Islamabad and Kabul remains live.
- Migration pressure on TürkiyeNegative6 months+
According to the report, instability may again raise migration pressure; because the irregular migration route runs westward via the Iranian border, Türkiye is among the countries likely to feel this pressure over the medium to extended term.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Slow deterioration, contained outlook65%
The Taliban retain administrative control, but the funding gap and returns worsen humanitarian indicators; migration pressure rises gradually.
Watch: Funding rate of the humanitarian response plan and monthly returns from Iran and Pakistan
- 2Border escalation and migration wave25%
Pakistani air strikes and border clashes intensify; displacement and migration out of the region rise markedly.
Watch: New Pakistani air strikes and UNAMA civilian casualty reports
- 3Relative improvement10%
Donor funding increases and international engagement widens; the deterioration in humanitarian indicators slows.
Watch: A marked rise in the funding rate and new engagement decisions at the Council
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.