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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionMiddle East and North Africa

HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints12 October 2026, Monday

Empty supertankers turn back from the Fujairah transshipment hub

Bloomberg tanker-tracking data show at least 10 empty supertankers and several Suezmaxes bound for Fujairah have stopped or changed course in recent days. The hub of the ship-to-ship system that bypasses Hormuz now sits inside the attack zone.

Location: FUJAIRAH

GuruFocus and Briefs relayed Bloomberg tanker-tracking data dated 12 October. They show that at least 10 VLCCs, supertankers that carry 2 million barrels, and several Suezmaxes approaching the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates halted or turned back in recent days. All the vessels were empty. Bloomberg's count could not be independently verified, and other ships were reported to be still entering the area.

Fujairah is a critical stop in the wartime system. Large tankers wait off Fujairah and Oman while small shuttle tankers run through Hormuz, load crude and transfer it to the bigger ships outside. If empty VLCCs stop arriving, shuttle tankers wait longer and exports slow. According to Maritime Executive, shots were fired near the VLCC Dhalkut, anchored off Fujairah, on 8 October.

Argus data cited by Oilprice show 2 more tankers were hit on 11 October, one in Hormuz and one off Oman. On 8 October a fire broke out on a Suezmax that had sailed with Iraqi crude, and 2 seafarers are missing. A product tanker was struck by a drone. Maritime Executive reports that Kpler put Gulf crude exports at about 10 million barrels a day as of 7 October, against 15.5 million in September.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The transshipment system that bypasses Hormuz rested on the assumption that the waiting area for large ships was safe, and that assumption is cracking. The retreat of empty VLCCs is still partial. If it persists, the bottleneck for Gulf exports shifts from the strait itself to the rendezvous point in the Gulf of Oman. The most likely path is a selective return, with owners demanding higher rates and shorter waiting times.

Likely effects

  • Gulf exportsNegativeWeeks

    When shuttle tankers cannot find large ships, the loading cycle lengthens; export volumes can fall regardless of how many vessels transit Hormuz.

  • Tanker freightNegativeWeeks

    The few VLCCs willing to enter the area will demand higher charter rates and war-risk premiums, and the cost passes into delivered prices.

  • TürkiyeUncertain1–6 months

    With ships carrying Iraqi crude also targeted, demand for the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline and the importance of Ceyhan both rise.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Selective return50%

    Owners send a limited number of VLCCs at high rates, and transfers continue, slowly.

    Watch: A renewed rise in VLCCs heading for Fujairah in tanker-tracking data

  2. 2
    The transfer hub breaks35%

    Fresh hits off Fujairah and Oman drive large ships away entirely, and Gulf exports fall below 10 million barrels a day.

    Watch: New UKMTO incident reports for the waters off Fujairah and Oman

  3. 3
    Attacks ease15%

    Diplomatic contact or naval escorts make the waiting area safe.

    Watch: An announced escort arrangement in the Gulf of Oman

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • VLCCs turned back or halted▼ ≥10
  • Gulf crude exports (Kpler, 7 Oct)▼ ~10m b/d
  • Missing seafarers (Suezmax)▼ 2

Sources

  1. GuruFocus — Oil Tankers Retreat from Persian Gulf Amid Rising Tensions (Bloomberg data)
  2. Briefs — Empty Supertankers Turn Back From Fujairah Amid Rising Attacks
  3. Oilprice — Two More Oil Tankers Attacked Near Strait of Hormuz
  4. Maritime Executive — More Tankers Struck as IRGC Expands Threat Against Non-Compliant Vessels