HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints28 September 2026, Monday
Brent tops 106 dollars in Asia as Iran sees no new round
Brent futures rose above 106 dollars in Asian trading on 28 September after Trump rejected Iran's 7-day plan for the Strait of Hormuz. Trading Economics data show the price up 1.52 dollars at 105.84 dollars, a daily gain of 1.46%.
Trading Economics data for 28 September show Brent trading at 105.84 dollars after moving above 106 dollars during the session. According to the same source, the price has risen 16.96% over the past month and 57.76% over the past year. CBS News reported at 14:37 (US time) on 27 September that Trump told Axios he expected negotiations to resume this week. Trump added that Iran wanted a deal, but not the deal he wanted.
The Times of Israel reported at 23:15 on 27 September that the Iranian delegation said no new round of talks was planned this week and that the Foreign Minister would return on Tuesday. According to CBS, Trump did not rule out new military strikes before the November midterm elections, speaking at 17:20 the same day. Washington expects a new round while Tehran sees none, a clear contradiction in how the two capitals read the timetable. Brent futures had closed at 104.32 dollars on 25 September, the last trading day.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The market priced Trump's rejection as a sign that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen soon, and Brent began the week at around 106 dollars. Washington expects talks this week while Tehran says no new round is planned. In that setting, the direction of prices will hinge on whether an official date for talks is announced. Trump's decision to keep the military option open is sustaining the risk premium.
Likely effects
- Oil pricesNegativeWeeks
A fresh rise on top of the 16.96% monthly gain adds to costs for refiners and importing countries; without news of talks, the pressure will persist.
- Türkiye's energy billNegativeWeeks
Brent's return to around 106 dollars adds pressure on Turkish pump prices in the same week the sliding-scale fuel tax system ends on 1 October.
- Diplomatic calendarUncertainWeeks
The two sides' conflicting accounts of the timetable mean mediators will need to press for a new date in the coming days.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Uncertain wait55%
No official date for talks is announced, and Brent trades choppily in a 104–106 dollar range.
Watch: Mediators announcing a new round
- 2Talks timetable becomes clear30%
A new round is announced during the week, and Brent eases back towards its 26 September close of around 104 dollars.
Watch: An official negotiation date from the US or Iran
- 3Military escalation15%
A new US strike or an incident in the Strait of Hormuz wrecks the basis for talks, and Brent rises sharply.
Watch: Statements from the Pentagon or CENTCOM
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Brent futures, 28 September▲ $105.84
- Daily change▲ +1.46%
- Monthly change▲ +16.96%
Historical context
Brent crude oil (futures), last 6 months
- 122/09 · Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline, shut by a drone attack on 13 September, at low flow on 22 September; full capacity will take weeks
- 224/09 · France sends troops, radar and air defence systems to Saudi Arabia's Yanbu oil terminal against Houthi attacks; troop numbers not disclosed
- 324/09 · Houthis fire 6 ballistic missiles at Yanbu and Taif; with the Red Sea end of the East-West pipeline targeted, Brent closes up 3.41% at $106.60
- 425/09 · Brent–WTI spread widens from $7.97 to $11.91 in a week: WTI ends the week lower at $92.41, Brent flat at $104.32
- 525/09 · Iran offers to open Hormuz by the end of day 7 if the US blockade and oil sanctions are lifted; Rubio says no breakthrough, Brent closes 2.1% lower at $104.32
- 625/09 · Diesel rises by 2.55 lira on 25 September after a 5.5-lira cut on 24 September; a litre climbs to 93.45 lira on Istanbul's European side
- 728/09 · Brent retreats from its intraday high as Yanbu news trims the premium
- 828/09 · Brent tops 106 dollars in Asia as Iran sees no new round