MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt29 September 2026, Tuesday
Economists expect monthly inflation of 2.18% in September
A survey of 20 economists by AA Finans put the September CPI expectation at 2.18%. If it is met, annual inflation will fall from 31.51% to 30.16%. TEPAV's food index rose 2.23% in September, its fastest monthly increase since April.
The AA Finans Inflation Expectations Survey closed on 29 September with 20 economists taking part. Their September CPI forecasts ranged from 1.90% to 2.60%, with an average of 2.18%. Monthly inflation was 1.84% in August. The average year-end inflation expectation rose to 29.66%; Dünya reported that the figure was 29.49% in the previous survey. TurkStat will publish the September data on Monday 5 October.
Food carries upside risk. Dünya newspaper reported on 29 September that the TEPAV Food Price Index rose 2.23% in September. The index, known as TEGE, is compiled by the think tank TEPAV from supermarket prices. It was the strongest monthly rise since April and took annual food inflation to 30.01%. For comparison, in the CBRT's September Survey of Market Participants, with 67 respondents, the year-end expectation had risen from 29.43% to 29.61%. The same survey recorded a 12-month-ahead expectation of 23.70% and a policy rate expectation of 37%.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Annual inflation is expected to fall to the 30% mark, but the October data look harder because of the 2.23% jump in food and the sliding-scale fuel tax mechanism that ended on 1 October. The upward drift in year-end expectations makes it harder for the CBRT to find room for a rate cut.
Likely effects
- Monetary policyNegative1–6 months
The rise in the year-end expectation from 29.49% to 29.66% weakens expectations of an early cut in the 37% policy rate.
- HouseholdsNegativeWeeks
The fastest rise in food since April keeps inflation in the basket of low-income households above the headline figure.
- Türkiye's disinflationPositiveWeeks
If the expectation is met, annual CPI falls by 1.35 points to 30.16% and the disinflation narrative is preserved.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Close to expectations55%
September CPI comes in within the 1.90–2.60% range, and the annual rate falls to around 30%.
Watch: TurkStat's September CPI release on 5 October
- 2Upside surprise30%
Food and energy push the monthly rate above 2.60%, and year-end expectations rise again.
Watch: TurkStat's food sub-item and fuel pump prices in early October
- 3Downside surprise15%
The monthly rate stays below 1.90%, and the rate cut debate is brought forward.
Watch: The CBRT's October Survey of Market Participants
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- September CPI expectation▲ 2.18%
- Annual CPI (expected)▼ 31.51% → 30.16%
- TEPAV food index▲ +2.23%