MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence24 September 2026, Thursday
Returning from the UN, Erdoğan says he expects concrete US steps on the F-35; Türkiye has been out of the programme since 2019 and Eurofighter talks continue
Returning from the 81st UN General Assembly, President Erdoğan said Trump had shown positive will regarding Türkiye's return to the F-35 programme and that he expected this to turn into concrete steps. Türkiye was removed from the programme in 2019 over the S-400s it acquired in 2017 and faced additional sanctions in 2020.
According to a Turkish Minute report dated 24 September, Erdoğan told journalists after his meetings at the 81st UN General Assembly in New York that Trump had demonstrated positive will on Türkiye's return to the F-35 programme. According to the same report, Türkiye was removed from the programme in 2019 after acquiring the S-400 air defence system from Russia in 2017 and faced further sanctions in 2020; at the NATO summit in Ankara in July 2026, Trump had signalled openness to its return. According to a Euronews Türkçe report dated 24 September, Erdoğan stressed in the same 24 September statement that, in parallel with the F-35 talks, the domestic KAAN fighter jet and domestic air defence systems remain priorities.
According to Euronews on 24 September, Erdoğan also said talks with the UK Prime Minister on the Eurofighter programme and related support agreements were continuing; he described Greece's F-35 objections as election-period rhetoric. As reported by Türkiye Gazetesi, Erdoğan said in the same statement on his return from the 81st General Assembly that Türkiye opposes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and that the Sinjar region in Iraq would pass to Baghdad's control. No written timetable, number of aircraft or formula regarding the S-400 systems was announced by the US side for an F-35 return; these details could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Ankara is keeping the F-35 return alive at the political level, but there is still no formula on the S-400 issue, the technical knot behind its exclusion since 2019. Mentioning Eurofighter and KAAN in the same breath shows that Türkiye is continuing its strategy of not tying its fighter jet gap to a single supplier.
Likely effects
- Defence procurementUncertain1–6 months
As the F-35 return drags on for 7 years since 2019, the Eurofighter package and the domestic KAAN remain the two main pillars of air force modernisation.
- Türkiye–US relationsNegative1–6 months
The absence of concrete steps in the 2 months since the July 2026 summit shows that the timetable for lifting CAATSA sanctions also remains uncertain.
- Aegean balanceNegativeWeeks
Greece's F-35 objection could increase Congressional pressure on Washington throughout the election period.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Slow diplomatic process60%
The parties continue talks at technical working group level, and no formal sale notification arrives before the end of 2026.
Watch: A US State Department foreign military sale notification to Congress
- 2Progress via an S-400 formula25%
Agreement emerges on storing the S-400s or placing them under supervision, and CAATSA sanctions are eased.
Watch: A CAATSA waiver or sanctions-lifting order from the White House
- 3Congressional block15%
Objections in Congress freeze the process and Ankara puts more weight on Eurofighter and KAAN.
Watch: A Senate Foreign Relations Committee resolution opposing F-35 sales to Türkiye
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Time outside the F-35▼ 7 years
- S-400 purchase▼ 2017