MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints8 November 2026, Sunday
Evergreen returns to Suez, completing the major carriers' comeback
Evergreen's 16,556 TEU Ever Eon transited the Suez Canal on 8 November, the carrier's first use of the waterway in roughly three years. Canal Authority chairman Osama Rabie said Evergreen had now followed CMA CGM, Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and COSCO back to Asia–Europe services through the canal.
According to the Egyptian Gazette, the 369-metre vessel operates on Ocean Alliance's NEU7 service linking the Far East with north-west Europe. Rabie said the line was planning further sailings in the period ahead. The Gazette describes the transit as part of a northbound convoy while giving the route as the Netherlands to Singapore, so its directional information is internally inconsistent.
The Middle East Observer reports that the canal earned 724 million dollars from 1,490 transits in October, with revenue up 94% and vessel numbers up 32% on October 2025. The same report notes that a temporary 12% surcharge on container ships was introduced in July, without disclosing how much of the increase came from pricing. Annual revenue had fallen from 10.25 billion dollars in 2023 to 3.99 billion dollars in 2024.
Through an insurance lens the return is striking. The Houthis are still striking Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones in November, yet container lines are coming back to the Bab el-Mandeb route. That suggests shipowners now judge the cost of war risk in the Red Sea to be bearable. A current war-risk premium rate for Red Sea transits was not given in the sources and could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
With every major container carrier back in Suez, Red Sea risk has once again become bearable for shipowners. Houthi attacks have shifted towards land targets, Saudi Arabia in particular. Egypt's revenue is recovering, though part of October's increase comes from the 12% surcharge.
Likely effects
- Egypt's FX earningsPositive1–6 months
October revenue of 724 million dollars lifts the canal's foreign-currency contribution well clear of its 2024 trough.
- Asia–Europe freightPositive1–6 months
Routing via Suez instead of the Cape of Good Hope shortens voyages and frees up container capacity.
- Turkish portsPositive6 months+
More Asian traffic through the eastern Mediterranean widens transhipment and connection opportunities for Turkish ports.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1The return becomes durable60%
Transit and revenue growth continue through November and December, and lines add sailings.
Watch: The Canal Authority's November transit and revenue release
- 2Partial retreat25%
A fresh attack on a merchant ship in the Bab el-Mandeb sends some lines back round the Cape of Good Hope.
Watch: UKMTO reports of an attack on a merchant vessel in the Red Sea
- 3Price effect dominates15%
Revenue growth comes from the surcharge while vessel numbers stay flat.
Watch: The Canal Authority's surcharge decision and monthly vessel count
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- October canal revenue▲ $724m
- October transits▲ 1,490
- Revenue growth (y/y)▲ +94%