MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints10 November 2026, Tuesday · 08:32 TRT (UTC+3)
The Iran war has revived piracy in the Gulf of Aden
The EU's Operation Atalanta told AP that the region has seen 79 pirate attacks since November 2023, roughly 30 of them after the Iran war began in February. Six merchant ships were hijacked between April and August; five have since been released.
According to an AP report published on 9 November, Atalanta's flagship, ESPS Santa María, is a 40-year-old, 4,000-tonne frigate. The operation is supported by a single reconnaissance aircraft flying from the French base in Djibouti. Its commander, Vice Admiral Ignacio Villanueva, said instability had pushed the clans back out to sea. Pirates have also adopted a new tactic: striking off the Yemeni coast and sailing the captured vessel to Somalia.
The route matters more than it did. The report notes that in peacetime the Bab el-Mandeb carries about 12% of world trade and a quarter of Asia–Europe container traffic. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has diverted some Gulf oil through the strait. The Tanzanian-flagged MT Asana was still held in Somali waters as of Atalanta's 16 October update; the IMO said in October that 22 seafarers were being held hostage aboard.
The insurance constraint does not show up in the numbers: the report gives no war or piracy premium. Christopher Hockey of RUSI said no ship carrying an armed security team has been hijacked. Analysts expect the route to split in two. Some ships will pay for armed guards, while others will cut costs and accept the hijacking risk. The 16 October update on the EUNAVFOR website lists four incidents as closed, including the Honour 25.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Piracy has returned to the Gulf of Aden as a by-product of the Hormuz crisis, and it now threatens the fallback route for Gulf oil. Atalanta operating with a single ageing frigate limits deterrence. The most likely path is a low but persistent tempo of attacks, with the cost of armed guards becoming the dividing line on the route.
Likely effects
- Bab el-Mandeb transitsNegative1–6 months
Piracy risk in a strait carrying about 12% of world trade adds a further security cost for Gulf oil routed around Hormuz.
- Freight and securityNegativeWeeks
A cost and risk gap opens between ships with armed guards and those without; smaller owners become the more exposed targets.
- Somali coastal economyNegative6 months+
The UN says about 30% of the population faces critical food insecurity; higher fuel prices are feeding the drift towards piracy.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Low-tempo persistence55%
A few attacks a month and the occasional hijacking continue, with Atalanta closing incidents one by one.
Watch: Monthly incident reports from Atalanta and the IMB
- 2Escalation and a major hijacking30%
A fresh tanker seizure off Yemen pushes up regional war and piracy premiums.
Watch: UKMTO Gulf of Aden advisories and Joint War Committee notices
- 3Decline15%
A reopened Hormuz pulls traffic back into the Gulf, shrinking the pirates' pool of targets.
Watch: Weekly Bab el-Mandeb transit counts
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Pirate attacks since the war▼ ~30
- Ships hijacked (Apr–Aug)▼ 6
- Seafarers held (MT Asana)▼ 22