LowI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints28 September 2026, Monday
Fidan to discuss Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb security in the UAE
The Turkish Foreign Ministry announced that Minister Hakan Fidan would visit the United Arab Emirates on 28 September 2026. The agenda covers freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, Gaza, Yemen and preparations for the second High-Level Strategic Council.
According to the Foreign Ministry announcement reported by Hibya, the visit takes place on 28 September 2026; the announcement did not say whom Fidan would meet. Yeni Akit reported on 27 September that the agenda includes preparations for the second meeting of the two countries' High-Level Strategic Council. According to the same report, developments in the Gulf, navigation safety in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, and the situation in Gaza and Yemen are also on the table.
According to Yeni Akit, Türkiye and the UAE have maintained a strategic partnership since 2023, and bilateral trade reached about 19.3 billion dollars in 2025. The UAE is Türkiye's largest trading partner in the Gulf and the region's largest investor in Türkiye. Fidan last visited the UAE on 20 March 2025. The visit comes a day after reports that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met the UAE President in Abu Dhabi on 27 September.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Fidan's first visit to the UAE since 20 March 2025 shows Türkiye stepping up its Gulf diplomacy on the UAE track once more. Having both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb on the same agenda suggests Ankara sees disruption at the two chokepoints as a trade and energy-cost problem. Coming in the same week as Netanyahu's contact in Abu Dhabi a day earlier, the visit highlights the UAE's role as a multi-directional mediator in the region.
Likely effects
- Türkiye–Gulf tradePositive1–6 months
Preparing a strategic council with the UAE, a partner with 19.3 billion dollars in trade, could help keep investment and financing channels open in wartime conditions.
- Maritime securityUncertainWeeks
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb is raising Türkiye's energy import costs; unless the search for a common stance becomes a concrete mechanism, its impact will stay limited.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Council date and general message60%
The visit ends with a date for the second strategic council and a general joint message on navigation safety.
Watch: Foreign Ministry statement after the visit
- 2Concrete economic package25%
The two sides announce a new agreement on investment or financing.
Watch: An investment or swap announcement from the UAE side
- 3Contact without results15%
The talks end without any concrete public outcome.
Watch: No joint statement issued
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Türkiye–UAE trade (2025)▲ $19.3 billion
- Straits on the agenda▲ 2