MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence26 September 2026, Saturday
Fidan: Mecca pact secretary-general to be chosen within 2 weeks, Pakistan nominates; Turkish presence in Bashiqa to shrink gradually as Iraq disarms
At a press conference in New York on 26 September after the 81st UN General Assembly, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the secretary-general of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed in August 2026 would be chosen within 2 weeks and Pakistan had nominated a candidate. He added that the Turkish military presence in Bashiqa would be gradually reduced and ended as Iraq disarms armed groups.
According to an AA report published by CNN Türk at 21:19 on 26 September, Fidan said the foreign ministers of the 3 members of the Mecca defence agreement had met in New York, that institutionalisation work was continuing and that the secretary-general would be chosen within 2 weeks. According to the AA text carried by Foreks, the candidate nominated by Pakistan is expected to be accepted by the member countries. The agreement's chiefs of general staff met in Riyadh on 25 September, and no joint military response was announced at the end of that meeting.
On Bashiqa, Fidan said the base was opened in 2015 at Iraq's invitation and for counter-terrorism purposes, and that Türkiye would gradually reduce and end its presence there as Iraq's roadmap for disarming armed groups is implemented. According to a Haberler.com report dated 22:11 on 26 September, Fidan stated that 'certain steps will definitely' be taken once the organisation's presence in Sinjar ends. This statement ties the joint declaration signed on 23 September between Erdoğan and the Iraqi Prime Minister, which envisages the gradual handover of Bashiqa-Zilkan, to an explicit condition at ministerial level for the first time; the timetable for the handover and the number of troops in Bashiqa were not disclosed and could not be verified.
At the same press conference Fidan said the package Iran had put forward on Hormuz had not yet produced concrete results; US President Trump rejected this 7-day plan on 26 September. The Iraqi Prime Minister's name appears differently in the sources: the sources in our 23 September record use the name Ali al-Zaidi, while Haberler.com gives a different name in its 26 September report; this contradiction could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The 26 September statement clarified two separate tracks on the same day: while the Mecca pact prepares to move to a permanent structure with a secretary-general within 2 weeks, Türkiye's presence in Bashiqa, in place in Iraq since 2015, has been tied to Baghdad's disarmament performance. Pakistan taking on the secretary-generalship could shift the pact's centre of gravity towards the Riyadh–Islamabad axis; in Bashiqa, since no timetable was announced, progress will be measured by concrete steps in Sinjar.
Likely effects
- Türkiye's Gulf security burdenUncertain1–6 months
The 3-member pact setting up a secretariat-general within 2 weeks binds Türkiye to a more permanent military coordination mechanism at a time when Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have intensified since July 2026.
- Security relations with IraqPositive1–6 months
The gradual reduction of the presence in Bashiqa responds to Baghdad's years-old demand for withdrawal and broadens the political ground for joint projects such as the 1,200 km Development Road.
- PKK and the Sinjar fileUncertain6 months+
Tying the withdrawal to disarmament in Sinjar turns the part of the 23 September declaration left without a timetable into a conditional sequence; if Iraq does not act, the Turkish presence will remain.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Pakistani secretary-general and slow institutionalisation60%
Pakistan's candidate is approved within 2 weeks and other staff are appointed later; although a pact secretariat is set up, no joint operation decision emerges.
Watch: Announcement of the secretary-general appointment by around 10 October
- 2Appointment delayed25%
Consensus on the candidate takes longer than 2 weeks, and institutionalisation is postponed depending on the course of Houthi attacks.
Watch: A new statement from the three ministries on the appointment date
- 3Rapid military integration15%
Together with the appointment of the secretary-general, a joint command or a permanent air defence deployment is announced.
Watch: A second chiefs of general staff meeting in Riyadh and a joint declaration
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Time to choose secretary-general▲ 2 weeks
- Mecca pact members▲ 3
- Turkish presence in Bashiqa▼ to shrink gradually
Sources
- CNN Türk (AA) — Foreign Minister Fidan speaks at press conference after 81st UN General Assembly
- Foreks (AA) — Fidan: Israel's international isolation is steadily increasing
- Gazete Oksijen — Minister Fidan's statement on Bashiqa
- Haberler.com — Hakan Fidan: If disarmament is achieved in Sinjar
- TRTV — Fidan on Bashiqa: We will gradually reduce our military presence