MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI1 October 2026, Thursday
South Korea's September chip exports top $60 billion for the first time
According to data released by South Korea's trade ministry on 1 October, total exports hit a record $120.9 billion in September, up 83.5% year on year. Semiconductor exports jumped 263% to $60.3 billion, accounting for roughly half of the total.
The Korea Times reported on 1 October that chip exports rose 263% in September to $60.3 billion, crossing the $60 billion threshold for the first time. Strong demand for memory chips drove the increase through both higher shipment volumes and rising prices. Imports grew 26% in the same month to $71.09 billion. As a result, the monthly trade surplus reached an all-time high of $49.85 billion.
By market, exports to China rose 123% to $26 billion and exports to the US rose 137% to $24.33 billion. Sales to Southeast Asia climbed 92.6% to $21.29 billion, while sales to the EU increased 20.9% to $8.65 billion. Car exports, by contrast, fell 5.5% to $6.05 billion because of the calendar effect of the Chuseok holiday. According to KED Global, exports for January–September rose 56.8% to $814.5 billion, already exceeding the full-year total for 2025. Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said the target of $1 trillion in annual exports for 2026 was on track.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
South Korea's September figures show AI-driven memory demand carrying the country's trade through both volume and price. Chip exports of $60.3 billion, roughly half the total, strengthen growth but also deepen reliance on a single product. With sales to both China and the US rising by triple digits at the same time, the country is more exposed to both sides' chip policies.
Likely effects
- Memory supplyNegative1–6 months
Much of the rise in memory exports comes from prices, a sign that high memory costs persist for server and computer makers.
- Korea's external balancePositiveWeeks
The record monthly surplus of $49.85 billion brings in foreign currency that supports the won and Korea's external financing position.
- US–China export controlsNegative1–6 months
With exports to China up 123%, Korea would be among the countries directly affected if Washington tightens chip controls.
- TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
Türkiye imports memory and server hardware; the price-driven rise visible in the Korean data could keep the cost of these imports high.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Chips keep carrying exports60%
Memory demand and prices stay high, monthly chip exports hover around $60 billion and the $1 trillion annual target is met.
Watch: October export data due on 1 November, and the chip line in particular
- 2Price momentum slows30%
Memory price rises cool, and even if volumes hold, annual growth in chip exports slows markedly.
Watch: A lower chip growth rate in the export data published in early November
- 3Trade policy shock10%
A new control or tariff decision from the US or China disrupts Korea's chip shipments.
Watch: New US Commerce Department rules on memory and HBM exports
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Total September exports▲ $120.9 billion
- September chip exports▲ $60.3 billion
- Monthly trade surplus▲ $49.85 billion
- Car exports▼ −5.5%