HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence16 September 2026, Wednesday
Indian and Pakistani naval vessels collide in the Arabian Sea as both capitals summon each other's diplomats
On the night of 15 September a Pakistani naval vessel and an Indian warship collided in the Arabian Sea. This is the first direct military contact between the two nuclear neighbours since the four-day conflict in 2025.
India's Ministry of External Affairs accused the Pakistani navy of unprofessional conduct in the collision in the Arabian Sea on the night of 15 September. According to the ministry, Pakistan violated Article 10 of a 1991 bilateral agreement requiring warships in international waters to stay at least three nautical miles apart. New Delhi summoned Pakistan's chargé d'affaires and delivered a note of protest. Pakistan in turn summoned India's chargé d'affaires in Islamabad the following day. According to Pakistan's account, the incident took place during the navy's biennial SEASPARK-26 exercise and within its own exclusive economic zone; the Indian ship made dangerously close and aggressive manoeuvres. India says the incident took place in international waters and that no serious damage was caused.
The incident came at a time when the two countries have had no ambassadors since 2019 and crisis management channels have remained very weak since the four-day conflict of May 2025. The Arabian Sea is the main route for the crude oil India buys from the Gulf and for traffic bound for Pakistan's port of Karachi. Freight and insurance premiums are already elevated because of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides' differing accounts of where the incident took place increase the risk of a similar encounter recurring and escalating. This amounts to an additional geopolitical risk premium for maritime trade in the region.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The collision is the first direct military contact between the two nuclear neighbours since the four-day conflict in 2025; but the tit-for-tat summoning of diplomats and India's statement that there was no serious damage show both capitals are keeping the incident in the diplomatic channel for now. The main risk is that conflicting accounts of where it happened trigger new encounters in a relationship with no ambassadors and weak crisis-management channels. The most likely course is tension confined to protest notes but adding a risk premium in the Arabian Sea.
Likely effects
- Arabian Sea shippingNegativeWeeks
The risk of military contact on the main route for India's Gulf crude and traffic to Karachi port adds further pressure to freight and insurance premiums already elevated by Hormuz disruptions.
- South Asian securityNegative1–6 months
No ambassadors since 2019 and weak crisis-management channels after the 2025 conflict increase the risk that, in a miscalculation, a naval incident rapidly becomes a political crisis.
- Türkiye's regional diplomacyUncertain1–6 months
For Türkiye, which has close defence ties with Pakistan, renewed India–Pakistan tension increases the need to balance economic relations with New Delhi; risk on Gulf energy routes also creates indirect costs.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Confined to diplomatic protest70%
The parties limit themselves to notes and statements; the navies keep their distance, no new contact occurs and the incident fades from the agenda within weeks.
Watch: No new close encounter reported in the Arabian Sea and the SEASPARK-26 exercise ending without incident
- 2Repeated naval encounters25%
Owing to conflicting jurisdiction claims, similar close manoeuvres recur; tension accumulates and diplomatic relations are downgraded further.
Watch: Reports of a new close manoeuvre or collision and mutual reductions in diplomatic staff
- 3Military escalation5%
An incident causes casualties or turns into mutual use of force; the two countries slide into a brief conflict as in 2025.
Watch: Casualties in an incident, navies deploying additional assets to the area or simultaneous clashes on the land border
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.