MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints14 September 2026, Monday
India's Russian crude purchases fall 30% in the first half of September on Ukrainian attacks and Chinese competition, while imports from Iraq triple
According to Kpler data, India bought 1.42 million barrels a day of Russian oil in the first 14 days of September, against an August average of 2.1 million barrels. Purchases from Iraq rose from 163,000 to 535,000 barrels.
According to Kpler data cited by ThePrint on 14 September, India's imports of Russian crude fell to 1.42 million barrels a day in the first half of September. This is about 30% below the August average; 1.7–1.9 million barrels are expected for the month as a whole. Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities such as the Sheskharis terminal and competition from Chinese buyers are cited as the reasons for the decline. Over the same period purchases from Iraq rose to 535,000 barrels a day (163,000 in August) and from Saudi Arabia to 430,000 barrels. Purchases from Venezuela, meanwhile, fell to around 150,000 barrels a day. According to EcoNiti, Russian oil purchases in August fell 26.3% from July to 2.08 million barrels a day, and Russia's share of imports declined from 55.9% to 45%.
In fiscal year 2025–26 Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports, worth 40.8 billion dollars. According to APAC News, sanctions legislation under discussion in the US could open the way to tariffs of up to 100% on countries buying Russian energy, though this is not automatic. Under the Hormuz constraints, India's supply flexibility is limited. Fewer Russian barrels raise both the import bill and dependence on Gulf sources. On the other hand, reduced Russian purchases could indirectly strengthen New Delhi's hand in its ongoing trade negotiations with the US.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The fall in India's Russian oil purchases is supply-driven rather than a political choice: Ukrainian attacks on Russian terminals and competition from Chinese buyers are reducing barrels, while Iraq and Saudi Arabia fill the gap. The 1.7–1.9 million barrels a day expected for the full month shows Russia is not lost for good. The most likely course is a partial and temporary decline, but the shift towards the Gulf under Hormuz constraints raises India's costs and vulnerability.
Likely effects
- India's energy securityNegative1–6 months
Replacing discounted Russian barrels with Iraqi and Saudi crude raises import costs; growing dependence on the Gulf under Hormuz constraints narrows supply flexibility.
- Russian oil revenuesNegative1–6 months
Terminal attacks and lower Indian demand could constrain Russia's oil revenues by increasing its dependence on China and discount pressure in exports to Asia.
- Türkiye's oil supplyUncertainWeeks
Asian buyers turning to Iraqi and Saudi crude increases competition for Gulf barrels, while disruption to Russian supply narrows alternatives; for energy importer Türkiye, supply costs may be affected through both channels.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Partial and temporary decline55%
Full-September purchases come in around 1.7–1.9 million barrels a day; Iraqi and Saudi substitution continues while Russian flows partly recover as terminals are repaired.
Watch: Kpler's end-September data and loading volumes at Russian terminals returning to normal
- 2Deeper and lasting decline30%
Terminal attacks continue and the US sanctions bill advances; India cuts Russia's share well below 45% and shifts to the Gulf and other sources.
Watch: The US sanctions bill advancing in Congress and October Russian purchases staying below 1.42 million barrels a day
- 3Recovery to August levels15%
Russian terminals are repaired quickly and Russia outbids Chinese competition with bigger discounts; Indian purchases return to around August's 2.08 million barrels a day.
Watch: Wider Russian Urals discounts and India's Russian purchases approaching the August average in October
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.