HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints10 November 2026, Tuesday
Weekly Hormuz transits remain 65% below pre-war levels
UKMTO's weekly report dated 10 November counted 170 outbound and 155 inbound transits of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving traffic about 65% below pre-war levels. JMIC logged five new incidents on 8 November, taking the total since 1 March to 177.
Most vessels transmitting on AIS are using Iran's northern route, according to the report as carried by Gulf News. JMIC's independent tracking puts daily transits anywhere from single digits to the low double digits, and it keeps the threat level at severe. US maritime coordination data show roughly 30 US-supported transits a day between 5 and 7 November; UKMTO says it cannot independently verify that figure.
The tempo of attacks has not eased. At least 11 ships were attacked in the week to 6 November and three sank, Gulf News reports. UKMTO has recorded 88 projectile strikes since early July. On the morning of 10 November, at around 16:30 TRT, a tanker was hit by a projectile off the coast of Oman, according to CBS; there were no injuries and the attacker has not been identified.
The latest public insurance data are dated. Insurance Business reported on 14 October that Marsh was quoting additional war premiums for tankers at 6–10% of hull value, against roughly 0.25% before the war. At that rate a $100 million tanker pays $6–10 million for a single transit. No broker quotation for November could be found; the incident rate does not yet meet the conditions needed for premiums to fall.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Brent has fallen to a two-month low, yet physical risk in the Strait of Hormuz is unchanged. With 325 transits a week and tanker strikes continuing, the war premium will not come down with the price. A durable rise in transits needs two to three weeks of falling attack numbers.
Likely effects
- Tanker freightNegativeWeeks
While attacks continue, owners enter the Gulf only at high freight rates plus war premium, and that cost is written into delivered prices.
- War-risk insuranceNegativeWeeks
At least 11 attacks and three sinkings a week make it hard for brokers to lower the 6–10% band in November.
- Türkiye energy billUncertain1–6 months
Even as Brent futures fall, freight and insurance stay high on Gulf cargoes, limiting relief on the import bill.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Thin traffic, continuing attacks55%
Weekly transits hold in the 300–350 range, JMIC adds new incidents every week and premiums stay in the high band.
Watch: UKMTO's next weekly report and the JMIC incident count
- 2Gradual recovery30%
The Qatar formula reduces attacks and transit numbers start rising week on week.
Watch: JMIC reporting no new incidents for two consecutive weeks
- 3Fresh contraction15%
A sinking or mine incident closes the northern route too, and transits fall further.
Watch: New incident notices on the northern route in UKMTO advisories
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Weekly transits (out+in)▼ 325
- JMIC total incidents▼ 177
- Tanker war premium▼ 6–10%