MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints11 November 2026, Wednesday
Qatar steps up LNG loadings, but flows remain half pre-war levels
MUFG's 11 November daily says LNG loadings at Ras Laffan rose to 13–15 cargoes on a ten-day average in early November, up from around 11 in October. Volumes are still about half pre-war levels: in the ten days to 8 November, only 11 laden Qatari tankers left through Hormuz.
MUFG's Middle East daily of 11 November reports that loadings at Ras Laffan rose from about 11 cargoes in October to 13–15 in early November. The same note says 11 laden Qatari LNG tankers exited the strait in the ten days to 8 November. The gap between loadings and exits suggests some cargoes are waiting to transit; the source does not confirm this distinction.
The base of the recovery is narrow. A Euronews report carried by Hellenic Shipping News on 2 September said QatarEnergy has renewed its force majeure notice month by month since March. Italy's Edison has had 29 cargoes affected since April, about 3.8 billion cubic metres of gas. Repairs to two production trains at Ras Laffan could take 3–5 years. The 12 undamaged trains could be brought back in about two months once the strait is safe.
The insurance constraint sets the pace of flows. Insurance Business reported on 9 November that the additional war premium for Gulf tankers has eased to 7–9% of hull value, with some policies written at 5%; the pre-war rate was about 0.25%. The same report says UKMTO has recorded attacks on more than 20 ships in Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman since 1 October. Even with premiums falling, owners will not send LNG carriers through the strait at full capacity while attacks continue.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Qatar is loading more cargoes, but exits through the strait lag behind loadings and volumes are half pre-war levels. The constraint lies in transit more than production. Even with the war premium down to 7–9%, the pace of exits stays capped while attacks continue. The most likely path is a gradual but half-capacity flow through November.
Likely effects
- European and Asian gasNegativeWeeks
Volumes at half pre-war levels keep LNG supply tight ahead of winter; price-sensitive buyers such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and India are hit hardest.
- Freight and insuranceUncertainWeeks
A war premium of 7–9% lowers transit costs per LNG carrier, but more than 20 attacks since 1 October delay owners' decisions to raise volumes.
- TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
Qatari flows stuck at half keep competition for Türkiye's winter spot LNG purchases fierce; the European price was €85.60/MWh on 11 November.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Gradual half-capacity flow60%
Loadings stay in the 13–15 cargo range and exits through the strait run at around half pre-war levels.
Watch: Lloyd's List Intelligence's 19 November Hormuz briefing and QatarEnergy's December force majeure notice
- 2Attacks cut flows again25%
New tanker strikes push exits below October levels and the war premium moves back towards 10%.
Watch: UKMTO weekly incident counts and broker war premium quotes
- 3Rapid normalisation15%
A written arrangement makes the strait safe and the 12 undamaged trains return to full capacity in about two months.
Watch: QatarEnergy announcing the lifting of force majeure
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Ras Laffan loadings▲ 13–15 cargoes
- Laden Qatari LNG exits▼ 11 / 10 days
- Gulf war premium▼ 7–9%