HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints4 October 2026, Sunday
Hormuz tanker attacks turn almost daily, yet transits still rise
UKMTO reported that three more tankers were struck by unidentified projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on 3–4 October. According to Windward, 8 merchant ships have been hit since 28 September, yet transits through the Strait rose to 13 on 4 October.
According to a gCaptain report on 5 October, UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said an inbound LPG tanker was hit at 17:16 UTC on 4 October and a crude tanker at 19:07 UTC. Another crude tanker was struck above the waterline on 3 October. Cyprus Mail reports that one of the tankers hit on 4 October was the six-week-old, Liberian-flagged Lipsi; a projectile struck its engine room and left the ship adrift. Over the weekend the Revolutionary Guards told a tanker 11 nautical miles north of Khasab in Oman that it would be targeted unless it turned back. The master turned back.
The attacks are not closing the Strait; they are raising the cost of passage. Windward's 5 October assessment shows that of the 13 transits on 4 October, 5 were inbound and 8 outbound, and 11 used the northern corridor. The firm concludes that the attack campaign is raising costs rather than shutting the Strait. The pre-war daily average was around 85 transits, so traffic is still only about a sixth of normal.
The picture on the Red Sea side is different. According to Windward, 23 ships entered the Red Sea through Bab el-Mandeb on 4 October and 19 left, against 18 and 13 on 3 October. The same day, multiple explosions were reported near a tanker about 60 nautical miles south of Mokha in Yemen; the ship was not damaged.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
In Hormuz the constraint is no longer physical closure but the price of risk. Rising transits amid near-daily attacks show shipowners are willing to pass at higher cost and through the northern corridor. The balance is fragile. A single attack with heavy casualties could push transits back into single digits.
Likely effects
- Freight and insuranceNegativeWeeks
Near-daily strikes keep war risk premiums high, and the delivered cost of every cargo passing the Strait stays far above pre-war levels.
- Iran's control of the StraitNegative1–6 months
The Revolutionary Guards turning ships back by radio shows Iran is subjecting passage to a selective permit system and effectively controls the northern corridor.
- What it means for TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
While Gulf product flows stay constrained, cost pressure on Türkiye's diesel and jet fuel imports persists; the recovery on the Red Sea route eases it only partly.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Limited flow at high cost55%
The attacks continue but transits hover near the 13 seen on 4 October; shipowners keep passing and price in the risk.
Watch: Windward's daily Hormuz transit count and the frequency of UKMTO alerts
- 2Deadly attack and retreat30%
An attack that kills crew members drives insurers out, and transits fall back into single digits.
Watch: A UKMTO alert reporting fatalities and daily transits dropping into single digits
- 3Attacks become sporadic15%
An interim diplomatic formula or US escorts reduce the attacks, and transits rise quickly.
Watch: A full week without a new UKMTO attack alert
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Hormuz transits (4 October)▼ 13
- Bab el-Mandeb transits (4 October)▲ 42
- Ships hit since 28 September▲ 8
Historical context
Strait of Hormuz transits, last 6 months
- 109/09 · US and Iran strike tankers in the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began
- 213/09 · Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia struck off Oman, two crew members missing
- 314/09 · Ship-tracking data at Hormuz contradict the US Energy Secretary's claim of 10 million barrels a day in flows
- 417/09 · European gas storage enters winter 68.5% full as TTF traded in a 77-79 euro band on 17 September
- 522/09 · Brent falls from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September as Hormuz transit data conflict
- 622/09 · Iran puts an offer to reopen Hormuz within 7 days on the table; the same day a parliamentary committee approves fines of 20% of cargo for violators
- 722/09 · Trump meets 12 regional countries including Türkiye at the UN, US and Iranian delegations talk for 3 hours; Tehran sets 3 conditions on Hormuz
- 823/09 · Bulk carrier Cape Dao hit by two projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 Indian seafarer killed; IMO counts 83 attacks and 23 deaths since the conflict began
- 923/09 · Iran raises its conditions for reopening Hormuz to 7; according to Kpler, only 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September
- 1024/09 · 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships
- 1124/09 · Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day
- 1226/09 · Trump says 29 ships left Hormuz overnight; independent tracking data show single-digit transits, barrel estimates range from 3.7 to 16.4 million
- 1328/09 · More than half of Hormuz transits now happen with transponders off
- 1429/09 · Tankers are hit in Hormuz, yet transits still rise to 17
- 1504/10 · Hormuz tanker attacks turn almost daily, yet transits still rise