HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence29 September 2026, Tuesday
Tankers are hit in Hormuz, yet transits still rise to 17
UKMTO reported that 3 ships were struck by unknown projectiles around the Strait of Hormuz on 29 September. Windward tracking data showed 17 transits the same day. According to Kpler, about 40% of crude now leaves the region without passing through the strait at all.
United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO, the British service that issues security alerts to merchant ships) said in alerts on 30 September that 3 ships had been hit on 29 September. According to a Maritime Executive report of 30 September, they included the ADNOC-operated 299,319 dwt VLCC Mersin Prosperity and the 115,949 dwt Sinbad. The third vessel was reported to be an LNG carrier, but its name could not be verified as of 30 September. According to an Aaj News report of 30 September, UKMTO did not name the perpetrator of the 3 attacks, and no casualties were reported.
Despite the attacks, Windward data showed 17 transits on 29 September and 16 the day before. According to Kpler, September shipments from the region reached at least 16.5 million barrels a day, and about 40% of crude leaves without crossing Hormuz; before the war the share was 17%. An Al Jazeera analysis of 30 September puts September exports at 16.328 million barrels a day, the highest since the war began on 28 February. According to the same analysis, the shortfall against the pre-war base of 19.513 million barrels a day is about 3.2 million barrels a day.
The two sides read the 29 September picture differently. According to the Al Jazeera analysis of 30 September, the Iranian side says military confrontation continues in the strait and that it keeps striking unauthorised small vessels. Windward, by contrast, assesses that Iran is less able to restrict traffic in the southern corridor than in midsummer. The 3 attacks and 17 transits on 29 September support both readings at once.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continue but are no longer enough to halt the flow; 17 transits took place on 29 September despite 3 attacks. Iran's leverage is shifting from cutting traffic to raising its cost. As crude flows recover, a shortfall of about 3.2 million barrels a day against pre-war levels and the insurance risk look set to persist.
Likely effects
- Oil supplyPositiveWeeks
With about 40% of crude bypassing the strait, individual attacks have less effect on global supply than in the first months of the war.
- Freight and insuranceNegativeWeeks
The strike on an ADNOC VLCC gives shipowners grounds to keep war-risk premiums high even as transit numbers rise.
- TürkiyeUncertain1–6 months
Recovering supply could ease the Brent-linked energy bill, but continued attacks make it hard for the risk premium to fade quickly.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Harassment continues, flows rise55%
Sporadic attacks continue, but daily transits stay above ten ships and exports rise slowly.
Watch: Daily transit data from Windward and Kpler, and new UKMTO alerts
- 2Escalation30%
Attacks become more frequent or cause casualties, and shipowners cut transits again.
Watch: The number of UKMTO alerts and CENTCOM statements
- 3Diplomatic opening15%
The Qatar channel makes progress and Iran halts its attacks.
Watch: An official Qatari announcement on Iran–US talks
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Hormuz transits (29 Sep, Windward)▲ 17
- Ships struck (29 Sep)▼ 3
- Share of crude bypassing Hormuz▲ 40%
Historical context
Strait of Hormuz transits, last 6 months
- 109/09 · US and Iran strike tankers in the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began
- 213/09 · Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia struck off Oman, two crew members missing
- 314/09 · Ship-tracking data at Hormuz contradict the US Energy Secretary's claim of 10 million barrels a day in flows
- 417/09 · European gas storage enters winter 68.5% full as TTF traded in a 77-79 euro band on 17 September
- 522/09 · Brent falls from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September as Hormuz transit data conflict
- 622/09 · Iran puts an offer to reopen Hormuz within 7 days on the table; the same day a parliamentary committee approves fines of 20% of cargo for violators
- 722/09 · Trump meets 12 regional countries including Türkiye at the UN, US and Iranian delegations talk for 3 hours; Tehran sets 3 conditions on Hormuz
- 823/09 · Bulk carrier Cape Dao hit by two projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 Indian seafarer killed; IMO counts 83 attacks and 23 deaths since the conflict began
- 923/09 · Iran raises its conditions for reopening Hormuz to 7; according to Kpler, only 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September
- 1024/09 · 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships
- 1124/09 · Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day
- 1226/09 · Trump says 29 ships left Hormuz overnight; independent tracking data show single-digit transits, barrel estimates range from 3.7 to 16.4 million