MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt13 October 2026, Tuesday · 05:00 TRT (UTC+3)

IMF lifts its growth forecast as gains narrow to 32 countries

In the World Economic Outlook released in Bangkok on 13 October, the IMF raised its 2026 global growth forecast from July's 3.0% to 3.1% and kept 2027 at 3.4%. The same report raised global headline inflation for 2026 to 4.7%.

Location: BANGKOK

Fortune reports that 32 countries now generate 95% of global growth, down from 54 in April. Two economies, the US and China, account for more than three-quarters of net demand for imports of AI chips and equipment. The IMF forecast assumes oil averages $96 a barrel this year, up about 41%. A Bernama report carried by The Star says the baseline assumes Hormuz transits resume in March 2027.

According to Reuters on Investing.com, the IMF also sketched two adverse scenarios. If oil stays above $130 until the first quarter of 2027, next year's growth falls by 0.5 points. If AI investment collapses, global GDP falls 1.1% and US output 1.8% by 2028. Growth in emerging economies slows from 4.5% in 2025 to 3.7% in 2026.

Euronews says euro-area growth is put at 1.1% in 2026, inflation at 3.1%, and core inflation is not seen returning to 2% until mid-2028. France's growth forecast is 0.4%. Döviz.com reports that the IMF cut Türkiye's 2026 growth forecast from 2.9% to 2.7%, its third downward revision this year. Year-end inflation for Türkiye is projected at 31.2% in 2026 and 26.5% in 2027.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The headline revision is upward, but the substance is narrowing: growth has contracted from 54 countries to 32 and the inflation forecast has risen to 4.7%. That mix keeps central banks tight and hits energy importers outside the AI cycle twice over. The forecast hinges on Hormuz reopening in March 2027; if that assumption breaks, the revision reverses.

Likely effects

Global ratesNegative1–6 months
Projected inflation of 4.7% in 2026, and 3.1% in the euro area, closes the Fed's and the ECB's room to ease; yields at the far end of the curve stay high.
Emerging marketsNegative1–6 months
Growth slowing to 3.7% while dollar rates stay high raises rollover costs; energy importers are the most fragile group.
TürkiyeNegativeWeeks
Cutting the growth forecast to 2.7% and year-end inflation to 31.2% creates an external benchmark that narrows the CBRT's room to cut.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Narrow-based growth persists55%
The US, China and AI exporters carry growth; the rest stay below the emerging-market average of about 3.7%.
Watch: The number of countries contributing to growth in the January 2027 WEO update
2
Energy shock drags the forecast30%
Hormuz does not reopen in March 2027, oil tops $130 and 2027 growth falls by 0.5 points.
Watch: The $130 threshold on Brent futures and the Hormuz transit count
3
AI correction15%
AI investment retreats and global GDP loses 1.1% by 2028.
Watch: Third-quarter capex guidance from US technology companies

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Global growth 2026▲ 3.1%
Global inflation 2026▼ 4.7%
Türkiye growth 2026▼ 2.7%

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources