MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security7 November 2026, Saturday
Iraqi exports are back to pre-war levels, but Hormuz still carries them
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said on 7 November that the Hormuz disruption had cost the country around $60 billion. The Oil Ministry says October exports topped 3.4 million barrels a day; the Ceyhan line carries only 200,000–230,000 barrels a day of that.
Ministry figures cited by 964media show exports falling from more than 99 million barrels in February to 18.6 million in March. Over the same period monthly oil revenue dropped from more than $6.8 billion to about $1.95 billion. Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair described October's 3.4 million barrels a day as a pre-war level. According to Oilprice, pre-war exports ran in a band of 3.3–3.5 million barrels a day.
Sources conflict on the September figure. On 19 October Oilprice, citing the ministry, put the September average at 2.65 million barrels a day; on 7 November 964media, citing the same minister, gave 3 million barrels a day. Ceyhan flows also differ: Oilprice reports 250,000 barrels a day in September, while 964media gives 200,000–230,000.
The constraint is route, not volume. Roughly 93% of the 3.4 million barrels a day still leaves from Basra's terminals and crosses the strait. According to Oilprice, buyers want delivery outside the strait to avoid the war risk premium. Under the FOB model Iraq uses, in which the cargo passes to the buyer at the loading port, transit risk stays with the buyer. That is why the state-owned Iraqi Oil Tankers Company moved 2 million barrels through the strait on its own supertanker, a first for state marketer SOMO in decades.
The insurance floor remains high. Brokers speaking to the Financial Times said that on 14 October the war premium for a tanker entering the Gulf was 6–10% of hull value, against roughly 0.25% before the war. The cost shows on Iraq's balance sheet too: according to Oilprice, foreign reserves have fallen by $20 billion and the central bank has devalued the dinar for the first time in more than 3 years. Oil supplies more than 90% of budget revenue.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Iraq has recovered volume but has not diversified its routes: roughly 93% of exports still depend on Hormuz. Buyers pushing delivery outside the strait are shifting war risk onto Iraq's own tankers and budget. The most likely path is that volumes hold, but terms of sale harden against Iraq with every new incident in Hormuz.
Likely effects
- Iraqi budgetUncertainWeeks
Recovered volumes restore revenue, but buyers' demand for delivery outside the strait erodes net revenue per barrel by the amount of the war premium.
- Gulf tanker marketUncertain1–6 months
SOMO's turn to its own tankers expands a structure in which state fleets absorb risk that the insurance market struggles to price.
- TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
With the Ceyhan line stuck at 200,000–250,000 barrels a day, the only pipeline outlet bypassing Hormuz is running below capacity.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Volumes hold, terms harden55%
Exports stay in a 3–3.4 million barrels a day band, buyers demand delivery outside the strait, and Iraq fills the gap with its own tankers.
Watch: The Oil Ministry's November export figures and SOMO's tanker purchase talks
- 2Fighting cuts exports again30%
The US–Iran conflict resumes and Basra loadings fall back towards March levels.
Watch: JMIC and UKMTO incident counts in Hormuz
- 3Ceyhan's share grows15%
Kirkuk–Ceyhan flows exceed 400,000 barrels a day and dependence on Hormuz falls markedly.
Watch: Monthly Iraqi loadings at the Ceyhan terminal
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- October exports▲ > 3.4m b/d
- Ceyhan line share▲ 200–230k b/d
- War losses (Hussein)▼ ~$60bn