MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints23 September 2026, Wednesday
Erdoğan and Iraqi PM Zaidi agree on phased handover of the Bashiqa base, home to Turkish troops since 2015, and on speeding up the Development Road
Meeting in New York on 23 September, Erdoğan and Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi issued a joint statement on fully restoring state authority in Sinjar, the phased handover of the Bashiqa-Zilkan base to Iraq's federal government and accelerating the roughly 1,200 km Development Road project.
According to Daily Sabah and Reuters, Erdoğan and Zaidi issued a joint statement after their meeting on 23 September on the sidelines of the 81st UN General Assembly. Under the statement, Turkish forces will gradually hand over the Bashiqa-Zilkan base near Mosul, where Turkish troops have been stationed since 2015, to Iraq's federal government in line with an agreed mechanism and timetable. According to Reuters, the timetable and mechanism of the handover will be set separately; Daily Sabah wrote that the handover is tied to progress in Iraq's implementation of joint security steps. The parties also agreed on the full restoration of state authority in Sinjar and the removal of proscribed foreign armed groups from the area. Baghdad had for years demanded the withdrawal of the Turkish presence in Bashiqa.
On the economic side, the leaders decided to increase bilateral trade and to accelerate joint strategic projects, in particular the Development Road. According to an Iraq Business News report dated 21 September, the two countries completed and signed a draft framework agreement on transport infrastructure in Baghdad after 4 days of intensive negotiations; the draft will be submitted to the senior leadership of both countries for approval. The project covers a railway and motorway corridor of roughly 1,200 km running from the port of Faw through Türkiye to Europe. The statement also covered cooperation on electricity interconnections and natural gas and oil pipelines; no figure was given for trade volume.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The Bashiqa handover shows Ankara turning progress in the PKK process into a bargain with Baghdad: the military presence is being reduced on condition that Iraq implements security steps in Sinjar, and in return the Development Road and energy lines gain pace. As no timetable has been announced, the handover will proceed slowly and conditionally. The most likely path is a partial handover and a drawn-out approval process for the draft agreement.
Likely effects
- Türkiye's trade corridorPositive6 months+
If the draft agreement is approved, the 1,200 km corridor from Faw to Europe would give Türkiye alternative transit revenue and a logistics role as a hedge against Hormuz and Red Sea risks.
- Security in northern IraqUncertain1–6 months
Tying the handover to progress in Sinjar tests Baghdad's capacity to remove armed groups from the area; failure would halt the handover.
- Türkiye–Iraq relationsPositive1–6 months
Accepting the withdrawal Baghdad has demanded for years widens the room for mutual concessions on the water and energy files.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Conditional and slow handover55%
The handover timetable is announced within months, with a partial withdrawal in the first phase; the Development Road draft waits in the approval process.
Watch: Both governments announcing the handover timetable and the approval of the draft agreement
- 2Rapid progress25%
The draft is approved quickly and the first handover step at Bashiqa is taken before the end of the year.
Watch: The Iraqi Council of Ministers approving the draft and footage of withdrawal from Bashiqa
- 3Deadlock in Sinjar20%
The removal of armed groups stalls and Ankara suspends the handover.
Watch: Iraqi army statements on the withdrawal of armed groups from Sinjar
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Development Road length▲ ~1,200 km
- Turkish presence at Bashiqa▼ since 2015
- Draft negotiation period▲ 4 days
Sources
- Daily Sabah — Türkiye, Iraq agree on Sinjar security, Bashiqa handover
- Cyprus Mail (Reuters) — Turkish forces agree to hand over camps in north Iraq
- Iraq Business News — Iraq-Turkey Deal on Transport Infrastructure Development
- A News — Turkish President Erdoğan, Iraqi premier agree to deepen security cooperation