MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security19 October 2026, Monday
Iraq's oil exports return to pre-war levels in October
Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair said on 19 October that October exports had passed 3.4 million barrels a day. The pre-war level was 3.3-3.5 million; September averaged roughly 3 million, and most exports still pass through Hormuz.
On the Reuters report carried by MarketScreener, Iraqi exports averaged above 3.4 million barrels a day over the first half of October. As relayed by 964media, the minister called that level a return to the pre-war picture and recalled that exports ran at 3.3-3.5 million barrels a day before the March cut. The ministry had said the average was roughly 2.6 million barrels over the first three weeks of September and roughly 3 million for the full month. Iraq Business News gave the same figures on 20 October, citing INA.
Exports flow along three routes: Hormuz, Türkiye's Ceyhan port and tanker trucks through Syria. According to oil analyst Ziyad al-Hashimi, only 200,000-230,000 barrels a day move on the Ceyhan line, so most of the volume is tied to the strait. The cut was costly: exports fell from 99 million barrels in February to 18.6 million in March, and monthly revenue from 6.8 billion dollars to 1.95 billion. Oil provides more than 90% of state revenue.
The figure sits awkwardly with the picture circulating a week earlier. According to 964media, the 2.6 million barrel reading covered the first three weeks of September, and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein had put the war's cost to Iraq at 60 billion dollars. The minister's new statement covers the October average and has not yet been confirmed by independent ship-tracking data.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Iraqi barrels are moving through Hormuz at pre-war volume while Iran's exports stand at zero. That shows the strait is not closed to everyone, but that who passes is being chosen. With only 200,000-230,000 barrels a day moving through Ceyhan, Baghdad's revenue still rests on Tehran's permission regime, and the most likely path is exports holding at this level while staying fragile.
Likely effects
- Gulf supplyPositiveWeeks
The increase of roughly 0.4 million barrels a day between September and October offsets part of Iran's zeroed exports.
- Iraq's budgetPositive1–6 months
With more than 90% of revenue tied to oil, a recovery in exports makes the war's 60 billion dollar bill easier to carry.
- TürkiyeUncertain1–6 months
The Iraq-Türkiye line carries only 200,000-230,000 barrels a day, so Ceyhan still runs far below capacity as an alternative to Hormuz.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Exports hold at 3-3.5 million barrels55%
Transit through Hormuz stays open for Iraqi cargoes and the October average closes within the pre-war band.
Watch: SOMO's official export statement for October
- 2The strait tightens on Iraq too30%
Attacks or Iran's list reach tankers carrying Iraqi cargoes and exports fall below 3 million barrels.
Watch: Weekly Kpler data on Basra loadings
- 3Ceyhan's share grows15%
Baghdad lifts flows on the northern line and dependence on Hormuz falls somewhat.
Watch: Daily flow statements for the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- October exports▲ 3.4m+ b/d
- Ceyhan flow▼ 200-230k b/d
- September average▲ ~3.0m b/d