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HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence24 September 2026, Thursday

Iran presents the US with a roadmap for a 60-day regional ceasefire and phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; Rezaei gives Washington 4–5 days

In indirect talks on 22–23 September, Iran presented the US with a roadmap comprising a 60-day regional ceasefire, a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the blockade. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei gave 4–5 days for the terms to be accepted; according to Reuters, Iran is ready to drop its transit fee demand from the main text.

Location: TEHRAN

According to a report by The National dated 23 September, in talks held on 22–23 September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly under the mediation of Qatar, Pakistan and Egypt, Iran gave the US a written roadmap: a region-wide 60-day ceasefire, a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the US economic blockade and a negotiating timetable within the 60-day period. According to the same report, Trump said he would not lift the blockade until Iran showed 'sufficient good faith'. According to GlobalSecurity's summary of 24 September, Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei gave Washington 4–5 days to accept the terms; India News Network reports the same deadline as 5 days. Sources also diverge on the number of conditions: Al Jazeera listed 3 main demands on 23 September, whereas the Iranian side had referred to 7 conditions the previous day.

According to a Reuters report of 24 September published by BOE Report, regional sources said Iran was ready to move its Hormuz transit fee demand out of the main agreement into a separate annex, because with the war approaching its seventh month the lifting of the blockade had become a more urgent priority. In the same report, an Iranian official said the crisis could be resolved in stages and that the first stage would be lifting the blockade and opening the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf states reject the transit fee outright; Trump hinted that a deal could come after the 3 November midterm elections, and former negotiator Dennis Ross put the chance of a deal before the election at 30%.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

For the first time Iran has put a sequenced exit formula in writing and leaked its readiness to drop the transit fee from the main text, which softens the biggest Gulf objection on the table. Yet neither side wants to give up its leverage first: Trump sets a good-faith condition for the blockade, while Tehran sets a 4–5 day deadline. The most likely path is that the channel stays open despite the deadline expiring, with bargaining over a partial first stage before the midterms.

Likely effects

  • Oil pricesUncertainWeeks

    Brent futures rose to $106.60 on 24 September; the back-and-forth between the phased reopening signal and the 4–5 day ultimatum means high volatility in futures prices is set to continue.

  • Gulf–Iran relationsNegative1–6 months

    Moving the transit fee to a separate annex does not fully resolve the Gulf states' objection on freedom of navigation; the fee issue could trigger a fresh crisis in the annex text.

  • TürkiyePositive1–6 months

    A 60-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would reduce Türkiye's energy bill and the uncertainty in border trade with Iran; the deadline expiring without a deal would postpone that relief.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Deadline lapses, channel stays open50%

    The 4–5 day deadline passes without a deal, but the mediators keep talks going; Hormuz transits remain low.

    Watch: Whether Iran announces a suspension of talks when the deadline expires

  2. 2
    First-stage agreement30%

    A first-stage deal emerges for a limited, gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an easing of the blockade.

    Watch: A US announcement of relaxed blockade rules or exemptions

  3. 3
    Collapse of talks20%

    Iran breaks off talks at the end of the deadline, and ship attacks or regional fronts escalate again.

    Watch: Iran formally announcing a halt to talks, and a new ship attack

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Proposed ceasefire▲ 60 days
  • Rezaei's deadline▼ 4–5 days
  • Deal before election▼ 30% (Ross)

Sources

  1. The National — Iran presents US with roadmap for region-wide ceasefire and reopening of Hormuz
  2. BOE Report (Reuters) — US and Iran discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade, sources say
  3. GlobalSecurity — Iran War day 209 update, 24 September 2026
  4. India News Network — Iran issues deadline to US amid rising tensions over Strait of Hormuz
  5. Al Jazeera — US, Iran hold mediated UNGA talks on ending war, opening Strait of Hormuz