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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionMiddle East and North Africa

HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints23 September 2026, Wednesday

Iran raises its conditions for reopening Hormuz to 7; according to Kpler, only 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said on 23 September that the strait will not reopen until the conditions are met; Tehran's 7 conditions were passed to Pakistan, Qatar and Iraq. A day earlier, 3 conditions had been mentioned. Kpler data show 3 vessels transited on 22 September, against a 10-day average of about 15.

Location: TEHRAN

According to a 23 September report in the state-aligned Kayhan newspaper, Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran has 7 conditions and that the mediators Pakistan, Qatar and Iraq had asked for them in writing; he said that unless the United States implements them first, neither will the strait reopen nor will negotiations take place. Kayhan did not list the content of the conditions. Fox News's live feed of 23 September also reported that Iranian state media referred to 7 conditions and that US envoys Witkoff and Kushner held talks of about 3 hours with Foreign Minister Araghchi through the mediators. Reports on 22 September, however, had said Araghchi listed 3 conditions; whether the 3 conditions are a subset of the 7 or a different list could not be verified.

Flow figures on the ground are also disconnected from one another. According to a Reuters report based on Kpler and LSEG data, carried by Baird Maritime and the state news agency TASS, 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September, all outbound; the day before the figure was 4. Talay's record of 22 September, citing Kpler, gave 2 vessels for 21 September; the gap between the two preliminary figures may stem from later revisions of preliminary counts. According to Fox News, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that 10 to 17 million barrels a day pass through the strait; this is inconsistent with the vessel counts. Straits.live counts only 1 transit for 20 September against a pre-war baseline of 85 daily transits, while TASS refers to about 125 large merchant vessels a day before the war.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

With contacts continuing on the UN sidelines, Tehran is enlarging its bargaining leverage by multiplying its conditions and placing the burden of sequencing on the United States. The swing between 3 and 7 conditions suggests there is no single negotiating line within Iran. Three transits a day show the strait remains effectively closed; the most likely path is protracted bargaining rather than a near-term reopening.

Likely effects

  • Oil pricesNegativeWeeks

    The multiplying conditions weaken expectations of a quick reopening and keep the risk premium in Brent alive; the sharp rise on 23 September is consistent with this reading.

  • Data reliabilityUncertainWeeks

    The wide gap between the official US flow claim and vessel-tracking data leaves the market carrying high uncertainty in its supply estimates.

  • TürkiyeUncertain1–6 months

    Türkiye's mediating role as a participant in the talks, and its energy import bill, remain directly tied to the duration of the bargaining.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Protracted bargaining55%

    Contacts continue but the strait stays effectively closed for weeks, with transits in single digits.

    Watch: Kpler daily transit counts and statements by the mediators

  2. 2
    Partial reopening package30%

    A limited reopening is accepted in return for a partial step on the blockade and frozen funds.

    Watch: A US announcement easing the blockade or releasing funds

  3. 3
    Collapse of talks15%

    The conditions are rejected, the United States returns to the military option and attacks in the strait increase.

    Watch: A White House statement that negotiations have been suspended

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Historical context

Strait of Hormuz transits, last 6 months

-51026415618/0513/0609/0703/0829/0824/099 September 2026 — US and Iran strike tankers in the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began113 September 2026 — Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia struck off Oman, two crew members missing214 September 2026 — Ship-tracking data at Hormuz contradict the US Energy Secretary's claim of 10 million barrels a day in flows317 September 2026 — European gas storage enters winter 68.5% full as TTF traded in a 77-79 euro band on 17 September422 September 2026 — Brent falls from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September as Hormuz transit data conflict522 September 2026 — Iran puts an offer to reopen Hormuz within 7 days on the table; the same day a parliamentary committee approves fines of 20% of cargo for violators622 September 2026 — Trump meets 12 regional countries including Türkiye at the UN, US and Iranian delegations talk for 3 hours; Tehran sets 3 conditions on Hormuz723 September 2026 — Bulk carrier Cape Dao hit by two projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 Indian seafarer killed; IMO counts 83 attacks and 23 deaths since the conflict began823 September 2026 — Iran raises its conditions for reopening Hormuz to 7; according to Kpler, only 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September924 September 2026 — 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships1024 September 2026 — Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day11
  1. 109/09 · US and Iran strike tankers in the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began
  2. 213/09 · Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia struck off Oman, two crew members missing
  3. 314/09 · Ship-tracking data at Hormuz contradict the US Energy Secretary's claim of 10 million barrels a day in flows
  4. 417/09 · European gas storage enters winter 68.5% full as TTF traded in a 77-79 euro band on 17 September
  5. 522/09 · Brent falls from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September as Hormuz transit data conflict
  6. 622/09 · Iran puts an offer to reopen Hormuz within 7 days on the table; the same day a parliamentary committee approves fines of 20% of cargo for violators
  7. 722/09 · Trump meets 12 regional countries including Türkiye at the UN, US and Iranian delegations talk for 3 hours; Tehran sets 3 conditions on Hormuz
  8. 823/09 · Bulk carrier Cape Dao hit by two projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 Indian seafarer killed; IMO counts 83 attacks and 23 deaths since the conflict began
  9. 923/09 · Iran raises its conditions for reopening Hormuz to 7; according to Kpler, only 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September
  10. 1024/09 · 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships
  11. 1124/09 · Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day

Sources

  1. Kayhan (Iran, state-aligned) — Rezaei: Hormuz will not reopen until Iran's conditions are met
  2. Fox News — Trump and Iran spend hours on war and peace after 'annihilation' threat (live feed, 23 September)
  3. Baird Maritime — Strait of Hormuz transits remain sluggish, hovering below 10-day average
  4. TASS (Russian state news agency) — 3 commodity vessels transited Hormuz on 22 September
  5. Straits.live — Strait of Hormuz status: 23 September 2026