HighVI Energy Politics & Supply Security19 October 2026, Monday
Iran's crude exports have stood at zero since late August
Satellite and ship-tracking data published by Bloomberg on 19 October show no tanker has berthed at the crude terminals on Kharg Island since late August. Iran's exports fell from roughly 1 million barrels a day in July to zero, and Kpler recorded no Iranian crude departures in September.
On the Bloomberg report carried by gCaptain, the Kharg Island terminals that handle most of Iran's crude exports stayed completely empty for roughly 40 days; the small vessel that berthed on 10 October turned out to be a product tanker working between Iranian ports. Kpler and Vortexa data put exports at roughly 1 million barrels a day in July and at zero since late August. In the year to April 2026, Iran had exported roughly 650 million barrels of crude, most of it to China.
As relayed by the Daily Caller, September was the first month in which Kpler recorded no Iranian crude departures since it began tracking in 2013. The United States restarted the blockade on 14 July, after an earlier round that ran from 13 April to 18 June. CENTCOM said it had turned 138 commercial ships away from their routes as of 17 October, a figure from the US military itself.
Flows outside crude have not stopped entirely. According to the Daily Caller, UANI counted at least eight ships carrying Iranian LPG out of the Gulf of Oman after mid-July, and in September a tanker delivered Iranian jet fuel to Myanmar. According to gCaptain, UANI estimated on 6 October that at most roughly 10 million barrels of Iranian crude remained in floating storage off Malaysia.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The blockade has zeroed Iran's crude revenue, which also drives to zero what it costs Tehran to restrict Hormuz. For a producer with no barrels left to lose, the strait becomes more valuable as a bargaining chip. The most likely path is the blockade holding while Iran tries to balance the pressure through its transit permission regime in the strait.
Likely effects
- Global supplyNegative1–6 months
Iranian exports of roughly 1 million barrels a day in July have withdrawn from the market entirely, and the gap has to be filled by the rest of the Gulf and by reserves.
- China's independent refinersNegativeWeeks
Once the roughly 10 million barrels in floating storage off Malaysia run out, access to discounted Iranian crude is cut and refiners look elsewhere.
- Hormuz bargainingNegative1–6 months
With exports at zero, Iran has moved to a position where keeping the strait restricted does no further damage to its own revenue.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Blockade holds, exports stay at zero60%
Kharg stays empty, Iran earns limited foreign currency from LPG and product cargoes alone, and builds its pressure through the strait.
Watch: Kpler and TankerTrackers loading data for Kharg
- 2The blockade starts to leak25%
Shadow fleet tankers slip through the blockade line and exports resume at a low level.
Watch: UANI's count of departures from the Gulf of Oman
- 3A deal lifts the blockade15%
Mediation leads the United States to suspend the blockade, and loadings return quickly as they did in June.
Watch: A US announcement suspending the blockade
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Iranian crude exports▼ 0 b/d
- July exports▼ ~1m b/d
- Floating storage (UANI)▼ ≤10m barrels