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MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence25 September 2026, Friday · 14:43 TRT (UTC+3)

Russia launched 295 drones on the night of 24–25 September, and by day a jet-powered drone hit an office building in Kyiv: 5 to 7 dead depending on the source

According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia launched 295 drones from 18:00 on 24 September, of which 267 were downed. At 14:43 on 25 September a jet-powered drone hit an office building in Kyiv's Solomianskyi district; the day's total toll is 5 dead and 46 wounded according to United24, and 7 dead and 59 wounded according to the Kyiv Post and Kyiv Independent.

Location: KYIV

According to an Air Force statement cited by Interfax-Ukraine, Russia used 295 attack drones from 18:00 on 24 September, 52 of them jet-powered Shahed types. Ukraine reported that it had downed or neutralised 267 drones, with hits recorded at 16 locations and falling debris at 4. A Russian statement on the number of assets used or their targets for this night could not be verified for this record. The figure of 282 drones in the Kyiv Independent's report matches Air Force data for the night of 23–24 September; the official figure for the night of 24–25 September is 295.

During the night a drone struck a 16-storey residential building in Pecherskyi between the 10th and 11th floors, killing a 14-year-old child. According to United24, an air raid alert was issued at 14:30 on 25 September and at 14:43 a jet-powered drone hit the office building in Solomianskyi; according to the Kyiv Post, 4 people were killed in this strike and 7 wounded, including 1 child, and a second office building in the same district was damaged at around 18:00. Telecoms provider Datagroup said one of its data centres was damaged and that services were continuing from backup facilities. The day's total toll differs by source: United24 reports 5 dead and 46 wounded, while the Kyiv Post and Kyiv Independent report 7 dead, 59 wounded and 25 hospitalised. Air raid alerts sounded in Kyiv at least 7 times during the day.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Russia did not confine the attack to the night but extended it into daytime working hours; with 52 of the 295 drones jet-powered, interception time is reduced. The gap of 5–7 in the death toll shows how attacks continuing through the day built up the toll piecemeal. Hits on data centres indicate that the telecoms attacks of 23 September are continuing.

Likely effects

  • Ukrainian air defenceNegativeWeeks

    The failure to stop 28 of the 295 drones and hits at 16 locations show that jet-powered drones are lowering interception rates and increasing pressure on interceptor stocks.

  • Kyiv digital infrastructureNegative1–6 months

    The strike on a Datagroup data centre, following the outages of 23 September, requires providers to devote more resources to redundant architecture.

  • DiplomacyNegativeWeeks

    Ukraine striking 2 Russian refineries the same night and Russia's daytime attack on Kyiv show that reciprocal infrastructure strikes are continuing without any limitation.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Reciprocal strikes continue65%

    Russia continues night and day drone attacks on Kyiv and Ukraine its refinery strikes; daily drone numbers stay in the 250–300 band.

    Watch: Air Force daily drone and interception data

  2. 2
    Larger missile wave25%

    Russia mounts a mass attack on energy and telecoms infrastructure with ballistic and cruise missiles.

    Watch: The number of missiles in a single night exceeding 20

  3. 3
    Temporary slowdown10%

    The tempo of attacks drops for a few days during diplomatic contacts.

    Watch: The number of air raid alerts in Kyiv falling to 1–2 a day

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Russian drones (24–25 Sep)▲ 295
  • Downed according to Ukraine▲ 267
  • Kyiv death toll▲ 5–7

Sources

  1. Interfax-Ukraine — Air Force: 267 of 295 drones downed, hits at 16 locations
  2. Kyiv Post — Russian drone hits office building in Kyiv: 4 dead, child among wounded
  3. United24 Media — Russian jet-powered drone hits Kyiv office building, leaving dead and injured
  4. Kyiv Independent — 14-year-old killed in Russian overnight attack on Kyiv