HighVI Energy Politics & Supply Security9 November 2026, Monday
Kirishi strike takes 30% of Russian refining capacity offline
Ukrainian drones struck Kirishi, Russia's second-largest refinery, on the night of 9 November. Two industry sources cited by Reuters on 10 November said the attacks since late October have knocked out roughly 30% of Russia's refining capacity.
Leningrad Governor Aleksandr Drozdenko said on 9 November that a fire at the refinery site had been extinguished and that 113 Ukrainian drones had been downed over the region. According to the Kyiv Independent, debris falling on an apartment block in Vsevolozhsk killed a woman. With processing capacity of about 20 million tonnes a year, Kirishi accounts for more than 6% of Russia's refined product output. The plant was also hit on 5 May and 30 August.
The two Reuters industry sources put the combined capacity of the affected plants at about 300,000 tonnes a day, or 2.2 million barrels. Russia's total primary refining capacity is around 930,000 tonnes a day. At the end of October refineries were processing roughly 700,000 tonnes of crude a day; the actual loss could reach 200,000 tonnes a day. Over the past week 9 of 35 major refineries suffered disruptions or emergencies.
Russia is nonetheless still shipping diesel to international markets under an export arrangement with the United States; volumes were not disclosed. Neither the repair timeline for the refineries nor whether any domestic restriction on gasoline exports is in force could be verified. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Ukraine had ignored calls to halt attacks on energy targets.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The strikes target Russia's processing capacity, not its crude output: the constraint sits at the refinery, not the wellhead. A processing loss of up to 200,000 tonnes a day forces Moscow to export more crude while protecting domestic fuel supply. Continued diesel exports suggest the outage has not yet fully passed through to external markets.
Likely effects
- Diesel marketNegativeWeeks
Disruption to 2.2 million barrels a day of Russian refining capacity supports European and Mediterranean diesel margins; the effect may stay contained while the export arrangement holds.
- Crude supplyUncertainWeeks
Crude that cannot be refined shifting to export could lift seaborne Russian crude supply and raise loading volumes at Black Sea and Baltic ports.
- TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
If unrefined crude moves to export via Black Sea ports, tanker traffic through the Turkish Straits rises; pricing and sourcing of diesel imports could also shift.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Strikes continue55%
Ukraine keeps hitting energy targets, the outage stays in a 20–30% band for weeks and Russia raises crude exports.
Watch: Weekly refinery outage estimates from Reuters and industry sources
- 2Mutual energy ceasefire25%
The Abu Dhabi talks produce an arrangement halting attacks on energy infrastructure and refineries go into repair.
Watch: The energy infrastructure clause after the Abu Dhabi round
- 3Diesel exports curtailed20%
The outage strains the domestic market and Moscow cuts diesel exports.
Watch: Russian government decisions on fuel exports
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Russian refining capacity▼ −30%
- Major refineries disrupted▼ 9/35