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HighV Technology Geopolitics & AI13 October 2026, Tuesday

Chinese memory fears sink the Kospi 5.46%, rattling Taiwan and Japan

The Kospi fell 348.89 points, or 5.46%, to close at 6,035.35 on 13 October; SK hynix lost 10.09% and Samsung Electronics 7.39%. Foreigners made net sales of 4.51 trillion won (about $3.35 billion). The trigger was the 4F²-cell server memory that CXMT has promised by year-end.

Location: SEOUL

According to Yonhap via the Korea JoongAng Daily, the index opened 3.1% lower, and a sell-side sidecar was triggered when the loss exceeded 5% for more than a minute. KED Global says the index dipped below 6,000 intraday, and this was the first sell-side sidecar in about two months. Institutions bought a net 1.69 trillion won and retail investors 2.23 trillion, absorbing the foreign selling; the won weakened by 10 won to 1,345.1 per dollar. Han Ji-young of Kiwoom Securities cited questions over OpenAI's revenue and the end of domestic chipmakers' share buybacks alongside the CXMT news.

The selling spread across the region on 13 October. The Taiex fell 960.65 points (1.95%) to 48,341.31; foreigners made their third-largest net sale on record at NT$165.34 billion, and the Taiwan dollar closed weaker than 32 per US dollar for the first time in two months. The Taipei Times says the Nikkei 225 fell 1.8%, with Kioxia down more than 13%, Advantest more than 8% and Tokyo Electron more than 7%. The same report says a rumour of a possible delay in Nvidia's Vera Rubin shipments deepened the sell-off; the rumour could not be verified.

The technology is moving more slowly than the pricing. CXMT said in Shanghai on 10 October that its first 4F² product would be a DDR5 server module due at year-end, but gave no speed, capacity or firm date. Industry sources cited by Newsis say 4F² cuts cell area by about 33% on paper compared with 6F²; Samsung and SK hynix do not plan to bring the structure into mass production until around 2028 because of yield and cost. The $3.35 billion sold on 13 October prices not today's technology gap but how many more years pricing power in server memory can be defended.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The 13 October sell-off answered a CXMT product whose specifications are not yet public with $3.35 billion of foreign outflows; the market is re-measuring how many years Korean memory can keep its pricing power, not the technical reality. Institutional and retail buying absorbed the first shock. The likeliest path is that the selling eases within weeks, but volatility in the memory premium rises with every new CXMT announcement.

Likely effects

  • Korean and Taiwanese currenciesNegativeWeeks

    Foreign outflows from memory stocks pushed the won to 1,345.1 and the Taiwan dollar past 32 for the first time in two months; in both chip-heavy economies the currency is becoming more sensitive to technology news.

  • Japanese equipment suppliersNegative1–6 months

    Losses of 7–13% at Kioxia and Tokyo Electron show Chinese substitution is now being priced not only into memory makers but into the Japanese chain that sells them tools.

  • TürkiyeUncertain1–6 months

    A possible easing in memory prices would lighten Türkiye's server and electronics import bill; the safe-haven demand from the same sell-off strengthens the dollar and limits the gain.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Selling stays technical55%

    Unless CXMT discloses product specifications, the selling eases; the Kospi offsets foreign outflows with domestic buying but volatility stays high.

    Watch: Foreign net flows on the Kospi turning to buying for three sessions in a row

  2. 2
    Substitution fears deepen30%

    CXMT sample modules reach Chinese cloud customers and server DRAM price expectations are marked down.

    Watch: CXMT disclosure of speed, capacity and customer qualification for its DDR5 RDIMM

  3. 3
    Selling spreads to AI spending15%

    A Vera Rubin delay is confirmed and questions over memory demand overtake the technology comparison.

    Watch: An official Nvidia statement on the Vera Rubin shipment schedule

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Kospi▼ −5.46%
  • SK hynix▼ −10.09%
  • Taiex▼ −1.95%

Sources

  1. Korea JoongAng Daily (Yonhap) — Kospi plunges 5.5% as Samsung, SK hynix lead AI-driven tech sell-off
  2. KED Global — Kospi tumbles as chip rout deepens, briefly breaking below 6,000
  3. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Taiex plunges 960 points as tech stocks hit by heavy U.S. losses
  4. Taipei Times — TAIEX plunges as technology stocks hit
  5. Financial News (Newsis) — 증시 폭락 'CXMT 4F²' 기술 뭐길래?…반도체 업계 "양산 여부 봐야"
  6. Investing.com — Samsung, SK Hynix shares drop as China's CXMT flags progress in memory development